US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Yes at 74% on 3 Nov 2026, down 21 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether a US-Iran ceasefire continues through November 2, 2026. It will resolve to "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action, such as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran, by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the specified date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "Yes."

Recent reports indicate that the United States launched fresh strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island amid ongoing peace talks and ceasefire negotiations. These developments have caused ceasefire odds to crater as explosions were heard on the island.

Key factors include the timing of the military strikes relative to the ongoing negotiations, with reports highlighting actions taken on Qeshm Island while diplomatic discussions continue.

Sources: DW.com: Iran: US launches fresh strikes as hostilities flare again, WSJ: Exclusive | U.S. Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks, Gulf News: US ‘defensive’ strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island: Latest developments as peace talks continue, Benzinga: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Crater Amid Reported Strikes On Qeshm Island

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

  1. Before market resolution on November 3, 2026

    Verification of Qeshm Island Strikes

    High impact

    Further confirmation regarding whether the reported US strikes on Qeshm Island constitute a qualifying military action under the market rules will determine the final resolution of the market.

    Source: WSJ: Exclusive | U.S. Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks, Gulf News: US ‘defensive’ strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island: Latest developments as peace talks continue, Benzinga: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Crater Amid Reported Strikes On Qeshm Island

  2. Any time before market close

    Official Statements on Ceasefire Status

    High impact

    Updates from US or Iranian officials regarding ongoing peace talks and whether a formal ceasefire remains in effect could alter the probability of a 'Yes' outcome.

    Source: France 24: Trump says deal with Tehran 'could happen' amid 'intensive' talks, Al Jazeera: Trump signals progress on Iran deal as Tehran pushes faster ceasefire, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Trump Says Iran Wants A Deal ‘And It Could Happen’

  3. Before market close

    Additional Military Actions

    High impact

    Any further air strikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the United States against Iran before the deadline would trigger a 'No' resolution.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Price jumps explained

  1. 3 Nov 2026

    US Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island Cause Price Drop

    96% → 42%Confirmed cause

    The price dropped significantly after reports emerged that the United States conducted strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. News outlets including the Wall Street Journal and Gulf News reported these defensive strikes while peace talks were continuing.

    Sources: WSJ: Exclusive | U.S. Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks, Gulf News: US ‘defensive’ strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island: Latest developments as peace talks continue

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 29 Oct 2026

    US-Iran Ceasefire Weakens Amid Stalled Talks

    95% → 56%Confirmed cause

    The chance of the US-Iran ceasefire continuing dropped as reports emerged that peace talks face uncertainty. Media outlets noted that the ceasefire was on life support after Tehran rejected a US response and refused to meet envoys.

    Sources: EnergyNow: Fate of Iran Peace Talks Uncertain as Deadline Approaches for End of Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: Trump Says Iran Ceasefire on ‘Life Support’ After Rejecting Tehran’s Response, NST Online: Oil ticks higher as Iran's refusal to meet US envoys dims ceasefire hopes

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2”?

On 3 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 74%, which means they saw about a 74 in 100 chance. That was down 21 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 3 Nov 2026, from 96% to 42%: US Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island Cause Price Drop. The price dropped significantly after reports emerged that the United States conducted strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. News outlets including the Wall Street Journal and Gulf News reported these defensive strikes while peace talks were continuing. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).

What could change the odds next?

Coming up: Verification of Qeshm Island Strikes; Official Statements on Ceasefire Status; Additional Military Actions. Details are under “What could move it next”.

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 3 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.