US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
Yes at 6% on 3 Nov 2026, down 86 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 3 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through November 3, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the United States initiates a qualifying military action, such as an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran, by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that date. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Yes."
Recent reports indicate that optimism surrounding potential peace talks and falling oil prices has been accompanied by reports of explosions and military incidents near Iran's Qeshm Island. While President Trump and Supreme Leader Khamenei have signaled openness to a deal, reports of strikes and drone shoot-downs have created uncertainty regarding the status of the ceasefire.
Sources: The Economic Times: Iran's Khamenei gives Pezeshkian government ‘certain powers’ for US peace talks: Report, Bloomberg.com: Khamenei Empowers Talks as Trump Says Iran Deal Could Happen, Bloomberg.com: Oil Holds Biggest Drop Since July on Optimism Over US-Iran Talks, Connected to India: Explosions heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, Bandar Lengeh amid US tensions, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Trump Says Iran Wants A Deal ‘And It Could Happen’, ThePrint: Iran’s Khamenei gives govt more powers to pursue US peace talks, Trump hints at deal, Benzinga: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Crater Amid Reported Strikes On Qeshm Island, Yeni Şafak English: Iran downs two US drones south of Qeshm Island, says IRGC, Malay Mail: US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island amid signs of progress in peace talks, says report
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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4 Nov 2026
Conclusion of Ceasefire Window
The market closes and resolves on whether a qualifying US military action occurs by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on November 4, 2026.
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Any time before the market closes
Further US Military Strikes on Iran
Additional qualifying air or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the United States that directly impact Iran would trigger a 'No' resolution.
Source: Gulf News: US ‘defensive’ strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island: Latest developments as peace talks continue, Benzinga: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Crater Amid Reported Strikes On Qeshm Island, Malay Mail: US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island amid signs of progress in peace talks, says report
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Any time before the market closes
Diplomatic Developments and Peace Talks
Further announcements or formal agreements stemming from peace talks authorized by Supreme Leader Khamenei and discussed by President Trump could reduce the likelihood of military escalation.
Source: The Economic Times: Iran's Khamenei gives Pezeshkian government ‘certain powers’ for US peace talks: Report, Bloomberg.com: Khamenei Empowers Talks as Trump Says Iran Deal Could Happen, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Trump Says Iran Wants A Deal ‘And It Could Happen’, ThePrint: Iran’s Khamenei gives govt more powers to pursue US peace talks, Trump hints at deal
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Any time before the market closes
Reports of Drone Interceptions or Defensive Actions
Reports of Iranian forces shooting down US drones or intercepting munitions could affect tensions, though intercepted munitions do not constitute qualifying strikes under market rules.
Source: Yeni Şafak English: Iran downs two US drones south of Qeshm Island, says IRGC
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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3 Nov 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Drop After Reported Strikes
The chance of the ceasefire continuing fell significantly after reports of explosions and attacks on Iran’s Qeshm Island. News sources noted that these reported strikes caused ceasefire odds to crater as war fears returned.
Sources: Connected to India: Explosions heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, Bandar Lengeh amid US tensions, Daily Pakistan: Iran’s Qeshm Island under Attack as US-Iran War fears return ahead of Mid-Term Elections, Benzinga: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Crater Amid Reported Strikes On Qeshm Island, Malay Mail: US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island amid signs of progress in peace talks, says report
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?”
- October 28100%
- October 3177%
- November 274%
- November 874%
- November 3036%
- October 24–
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3”?
On 3 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was down 86 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 3 Nov 2026, from 96% to 3%: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Drop After Reported Strikes. The chance of the ceasefire continuing fell significantly after reports of explosions and attacks on Iran’s Qeshm Island. News sources noted that these reported strikes caused ceasefire odds to crater as war fears returned. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Conclusion of Ceasefire Window (4 Nov 2026); Further US Military Strikes on Iran; Diplomatic Developments and Peace Talks. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.