US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes at 36% on 28 Oct 2026, down 11 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through November 30, 2026. It resolves to "No" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran—such as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran—before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that date, and otherwise resolves to "Yes."
Mediators have recently proposed deals and potential ceasefire extensions, while the Pentagon reported that the cost of military operations has risen to over $47 billion. Meanwhile, officials have discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice President-elect JD Vance is set to head negotiations.
Key factors include upcoming elections, with comments suggesting strikes may not occur before November 12, alongside warnings from the US of a possible short and intense renewal of the war following the midterms.
Sources: EnergyNow: Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire, The Hill: Iran war cost increases to $47 billion, EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, Kurdistan24: Pentagon: Cost Of Iran Military Operations Rises 25% To Over $47 Billion, Arabian Business: Iran war live: Trump says conflict will ‘properly’ end ‘whenever he wants’, NewsCord: Ali Motahari Says U.S. And Israel Won’t Strike Iran Before November 12 Elections: 5 outlets compared, WION: US-Iran war: Latest figure 25% above Pentagon's July estimate of $37 billion, News9live: US Iran war cost crosses $47 billion as Pentagon reveals rising military expenses, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, The National: Middle East latest: Qatari mediators present Iran with deal to end war, official says, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: JD Vance to head US negotiations with Iran: What comes next?, The Sunday Guardian: Trump Rejects Pakistan-Brokered Iran Peace Deal: What Did He Say And How Did Tehran Respond?, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Adds $24 Billion Precondition to Hormuz Reopening Plan, جريدة القدس: Official data reveals the cost of the US war on Iran has exceeded $47 billion, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Nov 2026
Market Resolution
This market will resolve to Yes if the United States does not initiate a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on November 30, 2026.
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Before November 12, 2026
Midterm Elections and Post-Midterm Risk
Some analysts suggest the U.S. and Israel will not strike Iran before the November 12 elections, while a WSJ report warns of a possible short, intense renewal of the war following the midterms, which would push the chance of Yes down.
Source: NewsCord: Ali Motahari Says U.S. And Israel Won’t Strike Iran Before November 12 Elections: 5 outlets compared, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
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Any time before November 30, 2026
Ceasefire Extension and Diplomatic Talks
Mediators have proposed extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire by two weeks and linking regional de-escalation to truce approvals, which would push the chance of Yes up if agreed upon.
Source: The National: Inside Tehran talks: Iranians link Houthi de-escalation to US approval of regional truce, EnergyNow: Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks
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Any time before November 30, 2026
Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Reopening Discussions
Iran indicated the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within days if the U.S. lifts its blockade, though additional preconditions could stall negotiations and increase military tensions, pushing the chance of Yes down.
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Adds $24 Billion Precondition to Hormuz Reopening Plan
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Any time before November 30, 2026
Potential U.S. Military Strikes
Pentagon officials and reports note that U.S. forces are prepared to strike Iran within hours if ordered, which would resolve the market to No if a qualifying air or missile strike occurs.
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/: US Forces Can Strike Iran Within 96 Hours of Trump Order, Officials Tell CNN, Kurdistan24: Pentagon: Cost Of Iran Military Operations Rises 25% To Over $47 Billion, News9live: US Iran war cost crosses $47 billion as Pentagon reveals rising military expenses, جريدة القدس: Official data reveals the cost of the US war on Iran has exceeded $47 billion
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
Iran Restricts Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
The probability of the ceasefire continuing dropped as reports emerged that Iran restricted the Strait of Hormuz while ships waited and a strike was claimed. This escalation contributed to doubts about a Middle East truce.
Sources: https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Restricts Hormuz as 492 Ships Wait; Houthis Claim Yanbu Strike, EnergyNow.com: Middle East Truce in Doubt as US and Iran Fight for Control of Strait of Hormuz
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
US and Israel Draft Strike Plans Against Iran
The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped after reports emerged that the U.S. and Israel drew up plans for renewed strikes on Iran following elections. This development raised concerns about potential military action before the November deadline.
Sources: The New York Times: U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections, Твоє місто: The US is building up military resources for a possible operation against Iran, - NYT, Yahoo Finance: Will Brent Jump 28% Again? US and Israel Draft Post-Midterm Iran Strike Plans
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
US Forces Allegedly Strike Iran's Konarak Naval Base
The market probability for a US-Iran ceasefire continuing shifted downward after reports emerged that US forces struck the Konarak naval base in Iran, resulting in reported personnel injuries. This alleged direct military action relates directly to the market conditions regarding qualifying strikes.
Sources: Business Upturn: Iran says US forces struck Konarak naval base, two personnel reportedly wounded
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 36%, which means they saw about a 36 in 100 chance. That was down 11 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 36% to 28%: Iran Restricts Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions. The probability of the ceasefire continuing dropped as reports emerged that Iran restricted the Strait of Hormuz while ships waited and a strike was claimed. This escalation contributed to doubts about a Middle East truce. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution (30 Nov 2026); Midterm Elections and Post-Midterm Risk; Ceasefire Extension and Diplomatic Talks. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.