US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Yes at 72% on 31 Oct 2026, up 12 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran will continue through November 8, 2026. It will resolve to "No" if the U.S. launches a qualifying military action, such as an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran, before 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on that date; otherwise, it resolves to "Yes."
As of late October 2026, diplomatic efforts are underway in Qatar, where Iranian envoys are meeting with mediators and discussing outreach from the U.S. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Washington and Tehran are weighing a potential two-week extension of their ceasefire, though the fate of the peace talks remains uncertain.
Key factors include looming threats of renewed U.S. strikes following upcoming elections and ongoing discussions regarding nuclear restrictions and the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leadership has ordered an immediate response if the U.S. resumes attacks, while diplomatic delegations continue negotiations through regional intermediaries.
Sources: EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, EnergyNow.com: Fate of Iran Peace Talks Uncertain as Deadline Approaches for End of Ceasefire, Business Standard: Trump says US in no hurry to end Iran war, claims time favours Washington, Arabian Business: Iran war live: Iran’s Supreme Leader orders army to deliver ‘immediate response’ if US attacks, Reuters: Iranian envoys meet Qatari mediators as threat looms of US strikes after midterms, Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a ‘positive step’ as delegation in Qatar for talks
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
In the coming days
Ceasefire Extension or Breakdown
Negotiations in Qatar between Iranian envoys and mediators could result in an agreement to extend the ceasefire by two weeks, pushing the chance of Yes higher, or talks could collapse and lead to renewed strikes, pushing Yes lower.
Source: EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, EnergyNow.com: Fate of Iran Peace Talks Uncertain as Deadline Approaches for End of Ceasefire, Zoom News: US Iran Conflict Nears Breakthrough As Ceasefire Talks Intensify Rapidly, Reuters: Iranian envoys meet Qatari mediators as threat looms of US strikes after midterms, Al Jazeera: Iran FM says US outreach a ‘positive step’ as delegation in Qatar for talks
-
Around the time of US elections
Post-Midterm Military Action
Reports indicate the White House is weighing military options and fresh strikes on Iran following the U.S. midterm elections, an event that would result in a No resolution if qualifying strikes occur.
Source: Business Standard: Trump says US in no hurry to end Iran war, claims time favours Washington, The Sunday Guardian: US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live Updates: Will Trump Order Fresh Strikes on Iran After Midterm Elections? White House Weighs Military Options, Reuters: Iranian envoys meet Qatari mediators as threat looms of US strikes after midterms, The New York Times: Iran Braces for More War, No Matter the Outcome of the U.S. and Israeli Elections
-
Any time before the resolution date
Qualifying US Military Strikes
Any direct U.S. air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike impacting Iran before November 9 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time will immediately resolve the market to No, while intercepted munitions or minor strikes will not trigger a No.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
-
29 Oct 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain
The price dropped as reports indicated that the US-Iran ceasefire was under strain. Specifically, news emerged that the ceasefire was on life support after a rejection of Tehran's proposal and escalating regional tensions.
Sources: DD News: US-Iran ceasefire under strain as Trump rejects Tehran proposal, regional tensions escalate, EnergyNow.com: Trump Says Iran Ceasefire on ‘Life Support’ After Rejecting Tehran’s Response
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
25 Oct 2026
US Intelligence Warns of Increased Iran Threats
An intelligence memo warned that Iran has increased its efforts to target US personnel. This escalation in tensions likely contributed to the decrease in the chance of a continued ceasefire.
Sources: Reuters: Iran has ramped up efforts to target US personnel, intelligence memo warns
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
21 Oct 2026
US Heavy Bombing Preparation Report Pushes Down Ceasefire Odds
The likelihood of the ceasefire continuing dropped significantly following a report that the United States is preparing a heavy three-day bombing of Iran. This news directly threatens the continuation of the ceasefire, leading to a decrease in the probability of a "Yes" outcome.
Sources: TABNAK: US reportedly preparing a heavy 3-day bombing of Iran
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
19 Oct 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Market Drops Amid Conflict Updates
The prediction market chance for the US-Iran ceasefire continuing dropped sharply as multiple news sources reported ongoing military actions, attacks, and blasts involving Iran and allied groups. Articles detailed strikes on petrochemical units, oil tanker fires, and heightened tensions that threaten the ceasefire agreement.
Sources: Goodreturns: US-Israel-Iran War Live: Blasts In Tehran, Iran Hits Saudi's Petrochem Unit; Israel Deploys Forces In Lebanon, The Sunday Guardian: US-Iran War Live Updates: Iran Reports Another Oil Tanker Fire After Mine Strike as Araghchi Offers US Six-Day Reopening Timeline and Day-Seven Talks
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?”
- October 28100%
- October 3199%
- November 3038%
- October 24–
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 72%, which means they saw about a 72 in 100 chance. That was up 12 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 80% to 45%: US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain. The price dropped as reports indicated that the US-Iran ceasefire was under strain. Specifically, news emerged that the ceasefire was on life support after a rejection of Tehran's proposal and escalating regional tensions. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Ceasefire Extension or Breakdown; Post-Midterm Military Action; Qualifying US Military Strikes. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 9 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.