US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Yes at 99% on 28 Oct 2026, up 13 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the ceasefire between the United States and Iran will continue through October 28, 2026. The market resolves to "No" if the United States initiates a qualifying military action, such as an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran, before the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to "Yes."
As of October 28, 2026, diplomatic efforts are underway to extend or finalize a ceasefire agreement. Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new deal to end the conflict, while officials from Jordan and Iran are discussing sustainable ceasefire efforts, and reports indicate both sides are weighing a possible two-week extension.
Despite ongoing negotiations and proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, tensions persist as the Pentagon estimates the cost of the conflict has exceeded $47 billion. President Trump recently commented on the situation, stating that the conflict will end when he wants and expressing skepticism toward alternative peace proposals.
Sources: Reuters: US costs of Iran war rise to over $47 billion, according to Pentagon estimate, EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, Arabian Business: Iran war live: Trump says conflict will ‘properly’ end ‘whenever he wants’, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, The National: Middle East latest: Qatari mediators present Iran with deal to end war, official says, Muslim Network TV: Jordan, Iran discuss efforts to reach sustainable ceasefire between US, Tehran, Hindustan Times: Trump says ‘never liked’ Pakistan-brokered Iran peace deal, Tehran hits back | World News, Reuters: Qatari mediators present Iran with new deal to end the war, official says, The Diplomatic Insight: Jordan, Iran Discuss Efforts to Secure Lasting US-Iran Ceasefire, The Sunday Guardian: Trump Rejects Pakistan-Brokered Iran Peace Deal: What Did He Say And How Did Tehran Respond?, The Express Tribune: Iran says Trump's Islamabad MoU remarks expose 'hollowness' of US commitments, جريدة القدس: Official data reveals the cost of the US war on Iran has exceeded $47 billion, CBS News: Iran war has cost $47 billion, U.S. military says, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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29 Oct 2026
Market Resolution
The market closes and resolves based on whether the United States initiates a qualifying military action against Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
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Before market close
Possible U.S. Military Action
If the United States conducts a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran before the deadline, the market will resolve to No.
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Before market close
Potential Ceasefire Extension Discussions
Ongoing diplomatic efforts by mediators or discussions between the U.S. and Iran regarding extending their ceasefire could lower the chances of military escalation and support a Yes outcome.
Source: EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, Reuters: Qatari mediators present Iran with new deal to end the war, official says, The Diplomatic Insight: Jordan, Iran Discuss Efforts to Secure Lasting US-Iran Ceasefire
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Before market close
Statements on Peace Deals and Blockades
Statements from leadership regarding peace deals, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or potential renewals of the conflict could shift market sentiment.
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, Hindustan Times: Trump says ‘never liked’ Pakistan-brokered Iran peace deal, Tehran hits back | World News, The Sunday Guardian: Trump Rejects Pakistan-Brokered Iran Peace Deal: What Did He Say And How Did Tehran Respond?, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
US and Iran Clash in Strait of Hormuz
The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped after reports emerged that Iran set a UAE oil port ablaze and struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Additional reporting noted that the US and Iran were fighting for control of the strait, threatening the ongoing truce.
Sources: EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Jump 6% as Iran Sets UAE Oil Port Ablaze, Strikes Vessels in Strait of Hormuz, EnergyNow.com: Middle East Truce in Doubt as US and Iran Fight for Control of Strait of Hormuz
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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24 Oct 2026
Diplomatic Pressure Grows to Maintain U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
The probability that the U.S. and Iran ceasefire will continue increased after European and Middle Eastern ministers urged the United States to pursue diplomacy rather than new attacks. Additionally, analysts noted that despite rising tensions and threats, international officials continued pushing for peaceful resolutions during this window.
Sources: Al Jazeera: European, Middle East ministers urge US-Iran diplomacy, not new attacks
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Ceasefire Talks Stall as Iran Rejects U.S. Terms
The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped after reports emerged that Iran rejected the U.S. ceasefire offer over zero uranium enrichment demands. Additional reports indicated that despite ongoing talks, Iran remained determined to keep its uranium as regional war odds increased.
Sources: NewsCord: Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Over Zero Uranium Enrichment, Says Enriched Uranium Stays In Iran: how 9 outlets framed it, Al Jazeera: Iran determined to keep uranium amid increased war odds, flurry of meetings
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
US Security Alert and Russian Diplomacy Amid Iran Tensions
The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped following US security alerts regarding potential Iran-linked attacks in the region. Additionally, reports of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visiting Tehran to discuss the conflict contributed to heightened concerns over the stability of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Sources: The Hindu: U.S. missions in West Asia issue security alert over possible Iran-backed attacks, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Lavrov In Tehran Amid Questions Over Whether Moscow Is Helping Iran In War With US
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 99%, which means they saw about a 99 in 100 chance. That was up 13 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 92% to 77%: US and Iran Clash in Strait of Hormuz. The chance of the ceasefire continuing dropped after reports emerged that Iran set a UAE oil port ablaze and struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution (29 Oct 2026); Possible U.S. Military Action; Potential Ceasefire Extension Discussions. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 29 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.