US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Yes at 95% on 28 Oct 2026, up 14 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 8 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire will remain intact through October 31, 2026. It will resolve to No if the United States launches a qualifying military action, such as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran, before the deadline. Otherwise, it will resolve to Yes.
As of late October 2026, diplomats and mediators are discussing potential ceasefire extensions and lasting peace terms, while regional talks continue through intermediaries like Jordan and Pakistan. At the same time, the Pentagon has reported that the cost of military operations has climbed to over $47 billion, and officials warn of a potential short and intense renewal of hostilities.
Key factors include diplomatic proposals being carried to Tehran and ongoing negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz if blockades are lifted. Traders are closely monitoring these talks alongside warnings from the US about potential escalations following the midterms.
Sources: https://houseofsaud.com/: Munir Takes Trump-Backed Iran Proposal to Tehran, The Straits Times: Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei reiterates conditions for ending war with US, EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks, Kurdistan24: Pentagon: Cost Of Iran Military Operations Rises 25% To Over $47 Billion, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, Muslim Network TV: Jordan, Iran discuss efforts to reach sustainable ceasefire between US, Tehran, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Oct 2026
Market Close and Resolution
The market closes and resolves to Yes if the United States has not taken a qualifying military action against Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
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Any time before October 31
US and Iran Ceasefire Extension
The United States and Iran are weighing an extension of their ceasefire by two weeks, which would push the chance of Yes higher if finalized before the deadline.
Source: EnergyNow.com: US and Iran Weigh Extending Their Ceasefire by Two Weeks
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Any time before October 31
Diplomatic Proposals and Peace Talks
Mediators continue to advance a Trump-backed Iran proposal and discuss sustainable ceasefire efforts with Tehran, which could support a Yes resolution if diplomatic momentum holds.
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/: Munir Takes Trump-Backed Iran Proposal to Tehran, Muslim Network TV: Jordan, Iran discuss efforts to reach sustainable ceasefire between US, Tehran, The Diplomatic Insight: Jordan, Iran Discuss Efforts to Secure Lasting US-Iran Ceasefire
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Any time before October 31
Qualifying Military Action by the US
If the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran before the market closes, the market will resolve to No.
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Any time before October 31
Munitions Intercepted or Minor Strikes
Actions such as munitions intercepted before impact, small-arms fire, or minor surface-to-surface strikes do not constitute qualifying military actions and would keep the market resolving to Yes.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall Amid Rising Tensions
The probability of the US-Iran ceasefire continuing dropped as reports emerged of escalating threats and warnings between the two nations. Articles highlighted growing fears of fresh military strikes and maximalist positions held by both sides.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Trump poses ultimatum on Iran, questions whether to reach deal or 'finish them off', Business Standard: Threat of full-scale US-Iran war grows amid fears of fresh military strikes, Iran International: Iran insider warns of limited US strikes now, major war after midterms, Anadolu Ajansı: Iran says it has never left negotiating table, accuses US of imposing unilateral demands
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Over Enrichment Terms
The prediction market probability for the ceasefire continuing dropped following news that Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal over uranium enrichment demands. Although reports noted that talks were still ongoing, the rejection over enrichment terms increased concerns about the future of the truce.
Sources: NewsCord: Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Over Zero Uranium Enrichment, Says Enriched Uranium Stays In Iran: how 9 outlets framed it, Newsmax: Iran Says It's Still in Talks With US on Controversial Truce Plan
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
US Strike on Iranian Naval Base
The market probability for the ceasefire continuing dropped significantly after reports emerged that US forces struck the Konarak naval base in Iran, resulting in wounded personnel. Iran stated that US forces carried out the attack, raising concerns about a breakdown in the ceasefire.
Sources: Business Upturn: Iran says US forces struck Konarak naval base, two personnel reportedly wounded
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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8 Oct 2026
US Ceasefire Prospects With Iran
Reports indicated that the United States would not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms, according to statements by President Trump. Additionally, Iran and the US exchanged new proposals for negotiations.
Sources: DW.com: US will not resume strikes on Iran before midterms — Trump, Anadolu Ajansı: Iran and US exchanged new proposals for negotiations, Pezeshkian tells Putin
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 95%, which means they saw about a 95 in 100 chance. That was up 14 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 86% to 70%: US-Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall Amid Rising Tensions. The probability of the US-Iran ceasefire continuing dropped as reports emerged of escalating threats and warnings between the two nations. Articles highlighted growing fears of fresh military strikes and maximalist positions held by both sides. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Close and Resolution (31 Oct 2026); US and Iran Ceasefire Extension; Diplomatic Proposals and Peace Talks. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.