Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Yes at 48% on 2 Nov 2026, up 16 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United States and Iran will hold a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if such an official meeting occurs, and No otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that intensive negotiations and contacts regarding regional issues and potential ceasefires are ongoing, with mediation efforts by countries like Qatar. While some reports note breakthroughs or proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, others indicate that talks have finished without immediate breakthroughs or that diplomacy remains uncertain amid threats of escalation.
Following a September 22 meeting in New York between U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, discussions continue to involve key actors like President Trump, though timing for potential future meetings and deals remains sensitive to regional developments.
Sources: NewsCord: Iran Rejects US Peace Talks As Ali Nikzad, Mohammad Akraminia Trade War Threats: how 9 outlets framed it, France 24: Iran engages US in 'intensive' negotiations to avert fresh war outbreak, Breakingthenews.net: US said not to focus on nuclear issue in talks with Iran, Iran International: Israel denies pressing Trump for Iran strikes amid diplomatic push, WSJ: America’s Gulf Allies Prepare for New Round of Strikes on Iran—and the Blowback, bloomingbit: Report Cites Breakthrough in US-Iran Talks Through Qatari Mediation, but No Official Confirmation, Al Jazeera: Iran pushing accelerated plan for ceasefire talks with US, Arms Control Association: U.S., Iran Threaten Escalation as Diplomacy Stalls, www.nationpathindia.com: Iran Proposes Two-Day Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as US Nuclear Talks Remain Uncertain, Boston Herald: Iran has a 2-day plan to reopen Strait, resume nuclear talks with US, and other Mideast news, The New York Times: Iran Says It Would Reopen Strait of Hormuz in 2 Days as Part of U.S. Deal, The New Region: Iran says peace deal with US depends on Washington’s ‘political rationality’, Reuters: Iran says contacts over ending war continue after talks finish with no breakthrough, 1News: Netanyahu presses US for Iran strikes as talks progress, officials say, Ynetnews: Trump signals possible Iran deal, rules out strikes immediately after US midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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2 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
US and Iran Teams Meet in Pakistan for Talks
The chance of a meeting decreased after reports emerged that US and Iran teams were in Pakistan for peace talks amid doubts. Meanwhile, Trump stated that Vice President JD Vance's recent outreach to Iran was related to medical supplies.
Sources: DD News: US, Iran teams in Pakistan for peace talks amid doubts over Lebanon, sanctions, Reuters: Vance outreach to Iran related to medical supplies, says Trump
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough Expected This Week
Mediation efforts and diplomatic talks have increased, with reports indicating a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could be announced this week. Additionally, Iran put forward a plan to end the conflict and regional actors are actively pushing for revived talks.
Sources: ABP Live English: Iran Puts Forward 7-Day Plan To End US Conflict, Says Hormuz Could Reopen On Day 6, Minute Mirror: Pakistan pushes US-Iran talks as Tehran offers Hormuz deal, The New Arab: Exclusive: Breakthrough expected in US-Iran mediation efforts this week, investingLive: A breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is expected to be announced this week, according to Al-Arabiya, Business Upturn: US-Iran breakthrough expected this week as mediation seeks to ease escalation
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 48%, which means they saw about a 48 in 100 chance. That was up 16 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 50% to 41%: US and Iran Teams Meet in Pakistan for Talks. The chance of a meeting decreased after reports emerged that US and Iran teams were in Pakistan for peace talks amid doubts. Meanwhile, Trump stated that Vice President JD Vance's recent outreach to Iran was related to medical supplies. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.