Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will implement a total of 10 rate cuts during the year 2026. It resolves based on the official tally of 25 basis point cuts announced in FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve data through December 31, 2026.
Following the Federal Reserve's meeting in late October 2026, the central bank decided to hold interest rates steady with the benchmark rate remaining between 3.75 and 4 percent as inflation continues to stay elevated. Most recent news reports confirm that rates were left unchanged at this meeting.
Economic observers and markets are closely assessing future signals from the Fed regarding the economic outlook and potential interest rate adjustments heading toward the end of 2026 and into 2027.
Sources: Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, PBS: News Wrap: Fed holds interest rates unchanged as inflation remains elevated, Inman Real Estate News: Fed holds rates; mortgage relief unlikely, economists say, NBC Palm Springs: Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady as Inflation Remains a Concern, CryptoTicker.io: Fed holds rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, two wanted a hike, The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, The Jakarta Post: US Fed holds interest rates steady despite 'too high' inflation, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, Reuters: Gold drops 1% as markets assess Fed signals, await US inflation data, CNBC: Gold slips as markets assess Fed signals, await US inflation data, Reuters: Fed highlights economic strength but muddies outlook for Treasuries, The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: The bond market swings, but U.S. stocks remain steady after the Fed says it won't raise interest rates, ROI-NJ: Federal Reserve leaves benchmark rate unchanged before 2026 midterm elections
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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Before December 31, 2026
Upcoming US PCE and GDP releases
Upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures and Gross Domestic Product data releases could shift market expectations regarding future Fed monetary policy easing, impacting the probability of rate cuts.
Source: Invezz: Silver price forecast: Fed decision sets the stage as US PCE and GDP loom
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Upcoming US PCE and GDP releases. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.