Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will implement a total of 11 rate cuts in 2026, with each cut measured as 25 basis points or equivalent adjustments. The market resolves based on official FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate published by the Federal Reserve.
Following the October 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4 percent. Reports noted that two officials dissented in favor of a rate hike during the decision.
Recent announcements also highlighted plans by the Federal Reserve to reduce its scheduled rate-setting meetings from eight to six per year under the leadership of Kevin Warsh.
Sources: CNBC: Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, Yahoo Finance: Fed Holds Rates, but Warsh Is Shrinking Its Rate-Setting Calendar, CryptoTicker.io: Fed holds rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, two wanted a hike, 조선일보: Federal Reserve Rate Hold Fuels Skepticism, The Business Times: Gold cuts losses as Fed pauses and stays silent on future hikes, Seoul Economic Daily: Fed to Cut Rate-Setting Meetings in Trump Era of Policy Shocks, Iolite（アイオライト）: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%–4.00%; Governor Cook Among Two Dissenters Favoring a Hike, 아시아경제: Fed Cuts Rate-Setting Meetings from 8 to 6... Holds Rates Steady Despite Strong Economy and High Inflation (2nd Update), BigGo Finance: Fed Hits Pause on Rate Cuts; December Hike Odds Near 80%; Oracle's Cash-Flow Boast Ignites Stock, 富途牛牛: Bessent "reassures Wall Street": No issues with U.S. Treasuries, no issues with AI financing, and no issues even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again., Gulf News: Fewer Fed rate votes, more debate: FOMC calendar reset, Knewz: Kevin Warsh denies politics influenced Fed rate decision, Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, 헤럴드경제: Fed cuts rate-decision meetings from 8 to 6 a year — Wall Street's verdict [Debriefing]
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Other markets in “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.