Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Yes at 81% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be the next Prime Minister of Spain. It will resolve based on whether he officially assumes the office by being formally sworn in following a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies by March 31, 2028.
Spain is currently approaching an upcoming election next month against the backdrop of a major national tragedy, following a high-speed train crash that killed 68 people and prompted Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to declare three days of mourning.
The disaster has intensified the political debate leading up to the election, raising questions about the political survival and re-election bids of current leaders like Sánchez while analysts closely track polling data to determine who will form the next government.
Sources: DW.com: Spain: High-speed train crash kills dozens, rescue operations ongoing, The Times: Why the Spain train tragedy will transform next month’s elections, Bloomberg: Sanchez Vows Detailed Probe of Spanish Rail Crash That Killed 68, The New York Times: What We Know About the Deadly Train Crash in Spain, BBC: Watch: At the scene of Spain's deadly train crash, DW.com: Spain train crash: Sanchez declares 3 days of mourning after 68 killed, POLITICO.eu: Spanish train disaster deals new blow to Sánchez’s long-shot election bid, Bloomberg.com: A New Spanish Tragedy Forces a Pre-Election Political Reckoning, The New York Times: ‘A Twisted Tangle of Metal and Wreckage’: Spain Train Crash Kills at Least 68, The Economist: Spain election poll tracker: Who will be the next prime minister?, The Express Tribune: Spain high-speed train collision kills 68, New York Post: Spain’s 155mph high-speed trains crash, killing 68 people — country’s second such disaster this year, The Malaysian Reserve: Death toll in Spain train crash rises to 68 as PM Sanchez vows full investigation, Outlook India: 68 Dead in Spain Train Disaster: How Two High-Speed Trains Collided?, Euronews.com: A train wreck: Can Sánchez survive Spain’s latest crisis?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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5 Oct 2026
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez Calls Snap Election
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced a snap election following mounting pressure over a housing crisis and a failed housing law. Following the announcement, the Spanish opposition leader urged voters to opt for change and oust Sanchez in the upcoming election.
Sources: DW.com: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls snap election, EPC, European Policy Centre: Spain’s snap election: Why Sánchez called it and what comes next, The Guardian: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez calls snap election after housing law fails to pass, AP News: Spain’s prime minister calls snap election aiming to seize momentum over housing crisis, The New York Times: Spain’s Leader Calls an Early Election, Al Jazeera: Spain’s Pedro Sanchez announces snap election amid housing crisis, Le Monde.fr: Spanish PM Sanchez announces early election in November, France 24: Spanish PM Sanchez calls snap election as pressure mounts over housing crisis, Reuters: Spain's Sanchez gambles on snap election after housing protests give rare boost, Financial Times: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calls snap election, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announces early election, CBC: Spanish PM calls snap election amid mounting housing crisis, BBC: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calls early election, blue News: Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez Announces New Elections, Devdiscourse: Spanish opposition leader urges voters to opt for change, oust PM Sanchez in snap election
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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5 Oct 2026
Spain's Prime Minister Calls Snap Election
The probability of Alberto Núñez Feijóo becoming the next prime minister fell following announcements that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election. Numerous news outlets reported that Sánchez made the decision amid mounting pressure and protests regarding a housing crisis.
Sources: NPR: Spain's prime minister calls early elections as pressure mounts over housing crisis, DW.com: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls snap election, EPC, European Policy Centre: Spain’s snap election: Why Sánchez called it and what comes next, The Guardian: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez calls snap election after housing law fails to pass, AP News: Spain’s prime minister calls snap election aiming to seize momentum over housing crisis, The New York Times: Spain’s Leader Calls an Early Election, Al Jazeera: Spain’s Pedro Sanchez announces snap election amid housing crisis, Le Monde.fr: Spanish PM Sanchez announces early election in November, France 24: Spanish PM Sanchez calls snap election as pressure mounts over housing crisis, Reuters: Spain's Sanchez gambles on snap election after housing protests give rare boost, Financial Times: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calls snap election, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announces early election, CBC: Spanish PM calls snap election amid mounting housing crisis, BBC: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calls early election, blue News: Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez Announces New Elections
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Feijóo's chances rise following speculation on early elections
The likelihood of Alberto Núñez Feijóo becoming the next Prime Minister increased after reports that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is weighing a snap election. This speculation followed the defeat of key housing measures in the Spanish parliament. Multiple news sources indicated that early elections may be called.
Sources: El Constitucional: Feijóo demands elections from Sánchez after the two housing decrees fell: "I am ready and Spain can't take it anymore", POLITICO.eu: Spain’s Sánchez weighs calling snap election after housing vote defeat, Euronews.com: Sánchez begins reflection on early election as protesters call for general strike, WRAL: Spain's government dealt blow after parliament rejects housing measures. Early election speculated, The New Indian Express: Spanish government loses both Parliamentary votes to ratify emergency housing measures, BBC: Spanish PM Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of woman, 87
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Feijóo Demands Early Elections Following Housing Vote Defeat
The probability of Alberto Núñez Feijóo becoming the next Prime Minister decreased after the Spanish government suffered a defeat in a congressional vote on a housing decree. Following this defeat, both Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Feijóo weighed calling for early elections, while protests also occurred.
Sources: Reuters: Spanish government housing decree sunk in congressional vote, El Constitucional: Feijóo demands elections from Sánchez after the two housing decrees fell: "I am ready and Spain can't take it anymore", Demócrata: Feijóo asks Sánchez to call elections after the housing decree-laws fall: "Spain can’t take it anymore", POLITICO.eu: Spain’s Sánchez weighs calling snap election after housing vote defeat, Euronews.com: Sánchez begins reflection on early election as protesters call for general strike, BBC: Spanish PM Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of woman, 87
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 81%, which means they saw about a 81 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 5 Oct 2026, from 74% to 84%: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez Calls Snap Election. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced a snap election following mounting pressure over a housing crisis and a failed housing law. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Apr 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.