Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Yes at 3% on 28 Oct 2026, down 66 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 12 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Aleksandar Vučić will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia. The market resolves based on the official formation of a new government and the swearing-in of the next individual elected to the office by the National Assembly by June 30, 2028.
Recent reports indicate that a victorious student movement has defeated Vučić's government in a historic election, with international actors urging the swift formation of a new parliament and government.
Potential new leaders being discussed include figures such as Srdanovic from the Student List, while Vučić reportedly expects to attempt a return to power in two years.
Sources: Reporteri: Tre emrat e mundshëm për kryeministër, Lista Studentore e Serbisë po përgatitet për bisedimet mbi formimin e qeverisë, Reporteri: Sërdanoviq nga Lista Studentore në Serbi: Do të vazhdojmë dialogun me Kosovën, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: 'Committed To European Integration': Student List's Srdanovic On Serbia's Post-Vucic Future, Serbian News Media: AP: Youth Movement in Serbia Defeats Vučić, but Implementing Reforms Will Be Much Harder, Anadolu Ajansı: EU urges swift formation of Serbia's new parliament, government following elections, Socialist Alternative: The Mass Movement Brought Down Vučić—Historic Election In Serbia, Fakti.bg: In Belgrade! Aleksandar Vučić expects to return to power in two years ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - World, Internazionale: The banker, the basketball star, the cardiologist and the chemist: meet Serbia’s potential new leaders, The Straits Times: The banker, the basketball star, the cardiologist and the chemist: meet Serbia's potential new leaders
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Jun 2028
Market resolution deadline
The market closes if no individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister by June 30, 2028, resulting in a resolution to 'Other'.
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Before June 30, 2028
Formation of Serbia's new government
Official election and swearing-in of a new Prime Minister by the National Assembly will determine whether Aleksandar Vučić or another candidate fulfills the resolution criteria.
Source: Anadolu Ajansı: EU urges swift formation of Serbia's new parliament, government following elections, The Washington Post: Serbia’s victorious student movement faces tough challenges as it prepares to take power
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As leadership decisions are made
Selection of prospective leaders by the student movement
Decisions by the victorious youth and student movement regarding key government roles and potential candidates could clarify whether Vučić has any pathway back to the premiership.
Source: The Washington Post: Serbia’s victorious student movement faces tough challenges as it prepares to take power, Internazionale: The banker, the basketball star, the cardiologist and the chemist: meet Serbia’s potential new leaders, The Straits Times: The banker, the basketball star, the cardiologist and the chemist: meet Serbia's potential new leaders
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Ongoing
Political maneuvering by Aleksandar Vučić
Statements or actions from Vučić regarding his expectation to return to power within two years could impact perceptions of his political viability.
Source: vreme.com: Vučić threatens "self-organization" of his supporters, Fakti.bg: In Belgrade! Aleksandar Vučić expects to return to power in two years ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - World
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
Aleksandar Vućić Concedes Defeat
The chance of Aleksandar Vućić becoming the next Prime Minister dropped significantly after reports emerged that he conceded defeat in the election. News sources reported that a student-led opposition movement won the historic parliamentary poll, ending his long rule.
Sources: Centre Daily Times: Belgrade in rapture as Serbian students topple Vucic in historic election, Sky News: Serbia's pro-Russian former leader urges supporters to avoid 'killings' after defeat, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Vucic Concedes Electoral Defeat, Setting Stage For New Era Of Serbian Politics, Relations With West, The Times of India: ‘People have won’: Serbia’s Vucic concedes defeat to student-led oppn in major political shift, www.christiandaily.com: Serbia’s Vučić concedes election to student movement; evangelical pastor calls result ‘a miracle’, CNA: Serbia's Vucic concedes defeat in historic election win for student protest movement, Tempo.co English: Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic Concedes Defeat to Student-Led Movement, Mother Jones: A Serbian Nationalist Leader Who Courted MAGA Just Lost in a Landslide, The Hindu: Serbia's student movement ousts longtime leader in Parliament poll, Le Monde.fr: Serbia's student movement ousts nationalist leader Aleksandar Vucic in parliamentary elections, Haberler.com: Vucic's 12-year rule in Serbia has come to an end: He accepted defeat., The Times of Israel: Serbia’s Vucic concedes election defeat in historic win for student protest movement, Inquirer.net: Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in parliament poll, Business Standard: Serbia's Vucic loses election after 14 years amid student-led protests, Bhaskar English: Serbia’s student coalition topples Putin-backed Vučić: Historic election win after nearly 2 years of protes...
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Aleksandar Vučić's Chances Drop After Conceding Defeat
The chance of Aleksandar Vučić becoming the next Prime Minister of Serbia dropped significantly after reports emerged that he conceded defeat in the parliamentary election. News outlets reported on the pivotal election where he faced a strong student-led movement and opposition.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Vucic Concedes Defeat In Pivotal Serbian Parliamentary Election
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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12 Oct 2026
Aleksandar Vučić Comments on Becoming Prime Minister
The price for Aleksandar Vučić to become the next Prime Minister of Serbia rose after reports emerged discussing his potential premiership. Specifically, statements were published indicating he mentioned holding three cabinet sessions a day if he becomes prime minister.
Sources: srpske.rs: Vucic: three cabinet sessions a day if he becomes PM
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was down 66 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 55% to 1%: Aleksandar Vućić Concedes Defeat. The chance of Aleksandar Vućić becoming the next Prime Minister dropped significantly after reports emerged that he conceded defeat in the election. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market resolution deadline (30 Jun 2028); Formation of Serbia's new government; Selection of prospective leaders by the student movement. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.