Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?
Yes at 62% on 31 Oct 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 16 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic's implied fully diluted equity valuation at its initial public offering will fall between $1.50 trillion and $1.75 trillion. The market will resolve based on the final offering price stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Anthropic has officially filed an S-1 for a Nasdaq listing, generating widespread media coverage and debate over its upcoming public offering. Estimates and market analyses vary, with notable valuations and commentary emerging as retail investors await access.
Financial figures and expert estimates are driving the discussion ahead of the IPO, including a valuation estimate of $1.475 trillion by finance expert Aswath Damodaran and broader market debates surrounding a potential $2 trillion bet.
Sources: CoinGeek: Anthropic’s IPO week: Bans, buyouts and a $2T bet, Crypto Briefing: Anthropic files S-1 for Nasdaq listing as retail investors await IPO access, Livemint: Anthropic IPO mega valuation: Top finance mind Aswath Damodaran estimates Claude maker's worth at $1.475 trn
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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29 Oct 2026
Anthropic IPO Valuation Estimates
The chance of Anthropic's IPO valuation falling between $1.50T and $1.75T increased after market analysts discussed the company's valuation. Specifically, reports highlighted a valuation estimate of $1.475 trillion and the arrival of the Anthropic prospectus.
Sources: Seeking Alpha: The Anthropic Prospectus Arrives: My (But Not The) IPO Valuation, The Economic Times: Dean of valuation Aswath Damodaran pegs Anthropic's worth at $1.475 trillion ahead of mega IPO
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Anthropic Files For Blockbuster IPO
Anthropic has officially filed for a massive initial public offering. Reports indicate that the blockbuster listing could value the AI giant at up to $2 trillion.
Sources: New York Post: Anthropic files for blockbuster IPO that could value AI giant at $2 trillion, AFR: Anthropic’s seven founders hit billionaire payday on IPO
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Anthropic IPO Filing Sparks Valuation Speculation
Anthropic officially filed for its initial public offering, leading to widespread discussion across major financial outlets regarding its potential market valuation. Media reports and market analyses following the filing prompted speculation about whether the company's valuation would reach the projected thresholds.
Sources: WSJ: The Biggest Takeaways From Anthropic’s IPO Prospectus, Business Insider: Anthropic's IPO sparks fear of market instability amid glut of AI stock, Yahoo Finance: Anthropic could make IPO history, but there’s a catch, Forbes: Anthropic Files For IPO: Here’s What We Learned, Bloomberg: What to Know About the Anthropic IPO
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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16 Oct 2026
Anthropic IPO Valuation Expectations Drop to $1.5 Trillion
The chance of Anthropic's IPO valuation falling between $1.50 trillion and $1.75 trillion increased after reports indicated lower valuation expectations. Several sources noted that Anthropic faces pressure to reduce its valuation target to $1.5 trillion amid investor questions about growth momentum and AI revenue.
Sources: The Telegraph: Anthropic’s valuation slashed by $500bn, Arise News: Anthropic Faces Lower IPO Valuation Expectations As Investors Question Growth Momentum, Pluang: Anthropic IPO valuation may drop to $1.5T from $2T, impacting Amazon and Alphabet's gains., Pluang: Anthropic's IPO valuation drops to $1.5T as AI revenue growth slows, raising investor concerns., Barron's: Anthropic Might Only Be Worth $1.5 Trillion. What That Means for AI Stocks., Capmad: Anthropic faces pressure to cut its IPO valuation target to $1.5 trillion
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?”
- $1.75–$2.00T31%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 62%, which means they saw about a 62 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 53% to 72%: Anthropic IPO Valuation Estimates. The chance of Anthropic's IPO valuation falling between $1.50T and $1.75T increased after market analysts discussed the company's valuation. Specifically, reports highlighted a valuation estimate of $1.475 trillion and the arrival of the Anthropic prospectus. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.