Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?

Yes at 28% on 29 Oct 2026, down 9 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 4 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic's initial public offering valuation will fall between $1.75 trillion and $2.00 trillion. The market resolves based on the implied fully diluted equity valuation at the final IPO price stated in the final SEC prospectus or official company announcements, excluding trading prices and preliminary ranges.

Anthropic has officially filed to go public, prompting widespread analysis of its financials and prospective valuation from major financial commentators. Notable figures, including valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, have published their own assessments of the company's worth ahead of the offering.

The company could begin marketing its IPO as early as the week of November 9, 2026. While Damodaran's preliminary valuation pegs the company's fair value somewhat lower, the final market pricing will be determined by the official prospectus disclosures.

Sources: CNBC: Anthropic is about to go public. Here are the proxies that could benefit, Musings on Markets: The Anthropic Prospectus Arrives: My (but not the) IPO valuation!, Aswath Damodaran | Substack: TheAnthropic IPO Arrives: My (but not the) Anthropic Valuation!, CNBC: Anthropic filed to go public—what retail investors should weigh before its IPO, Built In: Anthropic IPO Filing: Valuation, Finances and Key Details, Classic Rock 103.5 WIMZ: Prediction market bets set the tone for Anthropic’s much-awaited IPO, The Loadstar: Damodaran: The Prospectus Arrives: My (but not the) Anthropic IPO Valuation!, Yahoo Finance: What Robinhood's CFO found interesting about Anthropic's IPO prospectus, The Financial Express: Anthropic IPO: Inside pay packages of 3 Indian-origin executives, NDTV Profit: What Is Anthropic Really Worth? Aswath Damodaran Puts A Number On It, The Motley Fool: Anthropic Could Begin Marketing Its IPO the Week of Nov. 9, Stocktwits: What Is Anthropic Really Worth? ‘Dean Of Valuation’ Aswath Damodaran Pegs Fair Value, Moneycontrol.com: Anthropic worth $1.48 trillion, below potential IPO valuation, says Aswath Damodaran, Seeking Alpha: The Anthropic Prospectus Arrives: My (But Not The) IPO Valuation, The Economic Times: Dean of valuation Aswath Damodaran pegs Anthropic's worth at $1.475 trillion ahead of mega IPO

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 26 Oct 2026

    Anthropic Files For Blockbuster IPO

    14% → 30%Likely cause

    Anthropic officially filed for its initial public offering, revealing details about its business and valuation. Crypto markets and related reports indicated a valuation around $1.9 trillion, pushing the prediction market higher.

    Sources: TOKENPOST: Anthropic Files for IPO as Crypto Markets Imply $1.9 Trillion Valuation

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 24 Oct 2026

    Anthropic Posts Massive First-Half Loss Ahead of IPO

    34% → 21%Likely cause

    The chance of Anthropic reaching an IPO valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2.00 trillion dropped following news of its financial performance. Reports revealed that the company posted an $80.7 billion first-half loss ahead of its public offering.

    Sources: Big News Network.com: Anthropic posts $80.7 billion first-half loss ahead of IPO

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  3. 16 Oct 2026

    Anthropic IPO Valuation Expectations Lowered by Investors

    38% → 24%Confirmed cause

    The chance of Anthropic achieving an IPO valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2.00 trillion dropped as reports surfaced that some investors are pushing for a lower valuation of $1.5 trillion. Sources indicated that investors are tempering their expectations due to a revenue growth slowdown.

    Sources: Investing.com UK: Some investors push Anthropic to cut IPO valuation to $1.5 trillion - report By Investing.com, BigGo Finance: Anthropic Posts $16.8 Billion in Q3 Revenue, Valuation Discussions Lowered to $1.5 Trillion Ahead of IPO, TradingView: Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

  4. 4 Oct 2026

    Anthropic IPO faces valuation worries and cooling demand

    46% → 29%Confirmed cause

    The chance of Anthropic's IPO valuation reaching between $1.75 trillion and $2.00 trillion declined following reports of cooling Wall Street IPO fervor and tepid demand. Financial news sources highlighted that the massive potential valuation is facing a reality check due to growing valuation worries among investors.

    Sources: Yahoo Finance: Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO comes with a $518 billion bill, The Times: Anthropic’s $2trn IPO faces a Wall Street reality check, Financial Times: Wall Street’s IPO fervour cools on tepid demand and valuation worries

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T”?

On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 28%, which means they saw about a 28 in 100 chance. That was down 9 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 14% to 30%: Anthropic Files For Blockbuster IPO. Anthropic officially filed for its initial public offering, revealing details about its business and valuation. Crypto markets and related reports indicated a valuation around $1.9 trillion, pushing the prediction market higher. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.