Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?
Yes at 5% on 31 Oct 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 4 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic's fully diluted equity valuation at its initial public offering will fall between $2.00T and $2.25T. The market resolves strictly based on the final offering price and share count in the official prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, excluding any subsequent trading prices or preliminary ranges.
Anthropic has officially filed for its initial public offering, disclosing its revenue, compute infrastructure, and potential control risks. Market participants and analysts are closely evaluating the offering amid broader tech sector sell-offs and AI stock fluctuations.
Key factors influencing the IPO outlook include commentary from analysts such as Dan Ives and Aswath Damodaran regarding market conditions, alongside investor assessments of the company's financial figures and potential debt ratings following the filing.
Sources: Yahoo Finance: Anthropic expected to receive high ‘junk’ rating from credit agencies following IPO, report says, FindArticles: Anthropic Files for IPO, Disclosing Revenue, Compute and Control Risks, Seeking Alpha: U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: Anthropic Files For Potentially Record-Breaking IPO, TradingView: Dan Ives Says Anthropic IPO Faces A ‘Perfect Storm’ — Aswath Damodaran Warns ‘If One Falls, They Drag The Others Down’, Yahoo Finance: 1 Great Number From Anthropic's IPO Prospectus and 1 Number That Disappointed, KuCoin: Anthropic IPO Faces Risks Amid AI Market Downturn and High Valuation Concerns
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Anthropic Files For IPO
Prediction market odds for Anthropic's IPO valuation jumping into the $2.00T to $2.25T range coincided with news that the company filed for an initial public offering. Multiple financial news sources reported on the blockbuster IPO filing, highlighting the potential for a massive market debut.
Sources: Forbes: Anthropic Files For IPO: Here’s What We Learned, money.com: How to Invest in Anthropic Before the Claude Creator's Potential $2 Trillion IPO, Forbes: Nvidia, Intel, Other Major Tech Stocks Surge After Anthropic’s IPO Filing, San Francisco Chronicle: Anthropic’s massive IPO is coming. But its impact on S.F. may already be here, Bloomberg.com: What to Know About the Anthropic IPO, InvestmentNews: Anthropic IPO filing pairs explosive growth with an $80B loss, Forbes: Anthropic IPO: What We Know About Its Forthcoming Stock Market Debut, New York Post: Anthropic files for blockbuster IPO as it warns of chatbots' 'self-preserving behaviors' including 'blackmail', AFR: Anthropic revenue fuels IPO value, but Hostplus says it owns enough, AP News: Anthropic files for potentially the biggest IPO ever as CEO warns of risk to humanity from AI, 24/7 Wall St.: The All-In Podcast Flags Red Flags in Anthropic's IPO. What Everyday Investors Should Know, Yahoo Finance: Prediction: This Is How Much a $5,000 Investment in Anthropic Will Be Worth in 1 Year, https://tech-insider.org/: Anthropic IPO Paradox: $16.3B Sales, $80B+ Loss [2026], Fortune: Anthropic’s 7 cofounders are splitting $200 billion almost evenly, down to the last stock option, CNBC: From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, Anthropic IPO poised to have massive 'trickle-down effect'
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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16 Oct 2026
Anthropic IPO Valuation Expectations Drop to $1.5 Trillion
The chance of Anthropic achieving an IPO valuation between $2.00T and $2.25T declined after reports indicated that investors are considering a lower valuation of $1.5 trillion due to slowing revenue growth. News outlets reported that expectations of a $2 trillion IPO have cooled as investors question growth momentum.
Sources: Yahoo Finance: Anthropic Investors Consider Lower $1.5 Trillion IPO Valuation as Revenue Growth Slows, Yahoo Finance UK: Anthropic IPO valuation expectations cool as revenue growth slows, Yahoo Finance: Is Anthropic worth $2 trillion? How about $1.5 trillion?, Firstpost: Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO price too high? Investors weigh lower valuation: Report, Arise News: Anthropic Faces Lower IPO Valuation Expectations As Investors Question Growth Momentum, Pluang: Anthropic IPO valuation may drop to $1.5T from $2T, impacting Amazon and Alphabet's gains., Pluang: Anthropic's IPO valuation drops to $1.5T as AI revenue growth slows, raising investor concerns., Barron's: Anthropic Might Only Be Worth $1.5 Trillion. What That Means for AI Stocks., TheStreet: Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO dream hits a new reality, FinanceFeeds: Anthropic IPO valuation: $1.5 trillion, not $2 trillion, Traders Union: Anthropic IPO valuation expectations ease as revenue growth slows
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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5 Oct 2026
PitchBook Report Casts Doubt on Anthropic's $2 Trillion Valuation
The chance of Anthropic achieving an IPO valuation between $2.00T and $2.25T dropped after reports highlighted financial concerns. Specifically, PitchBook noted that Anthropic's leaked financials reflect fast growth but fall short of a $2 trillion valuation.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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4 Oct 2026
Anthropic IPO Targets $2 Trillion Valuation Before Thanksgiving
The probability of Anthropic's IPO valuation landing between $2.00T and $2.25T increased after reports indicated the company is targeting a mega-IPO before the Thanksgiving holiday. Media coverage discussed Anthropic's pursuit of a $2 trillion valuation despite facing a Wall Street reality check and high AI infrastructure commitments.
Sources: The Times: Anthropic’s $2trn IPO faces a Wall Street reality check, CTech: Anthropic’s $2 trillion AI dream is built on a series of contradictions, TheStreet: Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO comes with a $518 billion bill, The Economic Times: Anthropic targets mega-IPO before Thanksgiving Holiday, TipRanks: Anthropic’s $518B AI Commitments Loom Over $2T IPO Valuation, Yellow.com: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion IPO Before Thanksgiving
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?”
- $1.50–$1.75T55%
- $1.75–$2.00T35%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 5%, which means they saw about a 5 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 3% to 19%: Anthropic Files For IPO. Prediction market odds for Anthropic's IPO valuation jumping into the $2.00T to $2.25T range coincided with news that the company filed for an initial public offering. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.