Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Context

This market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel following the parliamentary elections held on October 27, 2026. The market will resolve to the individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister, excluding any interim or caretaker roles, with a final resolution deadline of December 31, 2027.

As of October 28, 2026, vote counting is ongoing and no clear winner has emerged from the election. While Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot have both seen shifts in their respective standings, reports indicate a state of deadlock between the competing political blocs.

The process of forming a new government remains uncertain as the nation awaits final results. Analysts are currently evaluating various scenarios for coalition building, as neither candidate has secured a definitive path to the premiership.

Sources: 930 WFMD Free Talk: Netanyahu defies exit polls as vote shifts in his favor, but majority remains elusive, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, Organiser: How do elections in Israel work, can Netanyahu form the next government?, The Jerusalem Post: Gadi Eisenkot declares victory as bloc takes lead over Netanyahu's, despite deadlock, Plataforma Media: Israel: Eisenkot says he wants to form government and opposes new elections, Al Jazeera: Five key takeaways from Israel’s parliamentary elections, NBC News: Israel’s election has no clear winner — but Netanyahu looks far from defeated again, The Forward: Netanyahu may have won Israel. He’s losing America., AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Israel’s election deadlock: 3 scenarios for what comes next, The New York Times: Israel’s Election: When Will We Know Who Will Be Prime Minister?, AP News: What to know about Israel’s election results as votes are counted with no clear winner, The Washington Post: No clear winner in Israeli vote, exit polls indicate, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

1. Over the coming days as vote counting continues

   Final Vote Tally and Coalition Formation

   High impact

   As final election results are tabulated, the ongoing updates on vote counts and potential coalition talks will heavily influence the probability of Benjamin Netanyahu securing the necessary majority to remain Prime Minister.

   Source: NPR: Israeli election results show no clear winner between Netanyahu, opposition, The New York Times: Israel Election Live Updates: Exit Polls Suggest No Clear Winner, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, WSJ: Netanyahu Holds on as Election Results Show No Clear Winner, AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot

2. Any time before December 31, 2027

   Official Swearing-In of the Next Prime Minister

   High impact

   The market resolves based on the official appointment and swearing-in of the next Prime Minister following the 2026 election, or it will resolve to "Other" if no such leader is sworn in by December 31, 2027.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Price jumps explained

1. 328 Oct 2026

   Netanyahu's Bloc Leads in Israel's Election Count

   42% → 52%Likely cause

   The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister increased as vote counting showed his right-wing bloc ahead of the opposition. News reports indicated that his coalition was leading while election results continued to roll in.

   Sources: JNS.org: Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc ahead of opposition as post-election vote count continues, Fox News: Benjamin Netanyahu faces political battle as Israel election results roll in, thenationalnews.com: Israel election live: Netanyahu's coalition ahead as change bloc urged to embrace Arab parties

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

2. 228 Oct 2026

   Netanyahu leads polls in Israeli elections

   24% → 48%Likely cause

   The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister increased as Likud led the polls following the parliamentary elections. Articles reported that he outlined achievements and future plans while awaiting final results.

   Sources: Al Jazeera: Netanyahu outlines achievements, future plans as Likud leads polls, Al Jazeera: Netanyahu outlines achievements, future plans as Likud leads Israeli polls

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

3. 127 Oct 2026

   Turnout Surges in Israeli Parliamentary Elections

   28% → 18%Likely cause

   During election day, reports highlighted a record-breaking voter turnout in Israel. News outlets noted that the high turnout was considered a potential warning sign for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

   Sources: Facebook: Polls opened in Israel on Tuesday as citizens voted in a national election widely described as the most consequential in the country’s history. A record number of citizens, 55.7% of voters, had cast ballots by 4 p.m. local time., Axios: Israeli turnout hits four-decade high in warning sign for Netanyahu, The Washington Post: Israeli election turnout skyrockets with Netanyahu’s fate on the line

   After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.