Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
Yes at 14% on 1 Nov 2026, down 4 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will achieve the highest percentage price increase in 2026 compared to Gold and the S&P 500. The market resolves using specific closing prices and exchange sources at the end of the year, including Binance for Bitcoin and MarketWatch for Gold.
As November 2026 begins, Bitcoin is navigating ongoing price predictions and potential tests of key price levels following recent market events. Meanwhile, Gold has experienced a notable monthly pullback, suffering its worst October in years according to reports.
Key factors heading into the final two months of 2026 include upcoming U.S. midterm elections, historical monthly performance trends, and long-term asset forecasts such as Bitwise raising its 10-year Bitcoin target.
Sources: CryptoTicker.io: Midterm Elections 2026: What Is at Stake for Bitcoin and Crypto, shattered.io: BTC Eyes $75K Retest After $6.3B Binance Hack [2026], FOREX.com: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD 17% Plunge Threatens Multi-Year Uptrend, CryptoTicker.io: Bitcoin price prediction: 9.8 percent short of year-end, what it means for investors, Yahoo Finance: Bitwise Just Boosted Its 10-Year Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million. That Would Likely Make Bitcoin the Top-Performing Asset of the Next Decade., Livemint: Crash! Gold price suffers worst October in years: Did silver and platinum suffer too? Check monthly performance
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026”?
On 1 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was down 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.