Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes at 67% on 28 Oct 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 25 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether incumbent Chiang Wan-an will win the upcoming Taipei mayoral election scheduled for November 28, 2026. The market will resolve based on official election results reported by Taiwan's Central Election Commission or a consensus of credible reporting.
As the campaign enters its final stretch following the official ballot number draw, candidates have opened campaign headquarters and intensified their outreach. Recent events include public rallies, policy announcements, and debates over various local and cross-strait issues.
Key figures in the race include incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an and challenger Puma Shen, alongside supporting political figures like Huang Kuo-chang. Observers note a tight race with active supporter mobilization and polling measuring candidate favorability.
Sources: Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Shen launches ‘policy island’ as Chiang rallies allies, Taipei Times: Chiang inaugurates campaign office as Shen unveils water plan, Focus Taiwan: 2026 ELECTIONS Chiang, Shen speak out after entertainer's 'Taiwan independence' statement, Taiwan News: Taipei mayor opens campaign headquarters, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: Chiang touts mayoral record at campaign HQ opening, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: KMT supporters mobilizing quietly, lawmaker says, UA.NEWS: Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an opens campaign headquarters ahead of elections — Taipei Times, Taiwan News: Taipei’s Chiang urges supporters to canvass after campaign rally, 联合早报: Taipei mayor takes veiled swipe at Puma Shen, says substance beats showmanship, Taiwan News: Taipei mayoral candidates draw ballot numbers, Focus Taiwan: 2026 ELECTIONS Ballot number draw kicks off final stretch of Taiwan's local races, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: China trying to isolate Puma Shen: source, Taiwan News: Taiwan poll puts Shen 11 points ahead of Chiang in favorability, The Straits Times: Can KMT’s Chiang Wan-an rally supporters in tight mayor race to defend his Taipei seat?, Taiwan News: Huang Kuo-chang pledges support for Chiang Wan-an’s Taipei reelection bid
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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28 Nov 2026
Taipei Mayoral Election Day
The local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026, where voters will cast their ballots to determine the next Mayor of Taipei.
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30 Jun 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
If the result is not known or no candidate is elected by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
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Any time before the election
Campaign Rally and Polling Developments
Recent polls showing challenger Puma Shen ahead in favorability and ongoing campaign events could influence voter sentiment and change Chiang Wan-an's reelection prospects.
Source: Taiwan News: Taiwan poll puts Shen 11 points ahead of Chiang in favorability, The Straits Times: Can KMT’s Chiang Wan-an rally supporters in tight mayor race to defend his Taipei seat?, Taiwan News: Huang Kuo-chang pledges support for Chiang Wan-an’s Taipei reelection bid
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Any time before the election
External Interference Allegations
Reports concerning alleged actions by Beijing regarding candidate Puma Shen could impact the dynamics and voter preferences in the Taipei mayoral race.
Source: Vision Times: US Think Tanks Warn Beijing May Be Targeting Puma Shen to Influence Taipei Election, Taipei Times: 2026 Elections: China trying to isolate Puma Shen: source, Devdiscourse: China accused of intimidation campaign to isolate Taiwan politician
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
Chiang Wan-an Launches Campaign Office
The probability of Chiang winning the election increased after reports that he inaugurated his campaign office. At the same time, his opponent unveiled a water plan as the campaign progressed.
Sources: Taipei Times: Chiang inaugurates campaign office as Shen unveils water plan
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 67%, which means they saw about a 67 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 62% to 72%: Chiang Wan-an Launches Campaign Office. The probability of Chiang winning the election increased after reports that he inaugurated his campaign office. At the same time, his opponent unveiled a water plan as the campaign progressed. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Taipei Mayoral Election Day (28 Nov 2026); Market Resolution Deadline (30 Jun 2027); Campaign Rally and Polling Developments. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 29 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).