Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 14% on 7 Nov 2026, down 25 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Chris Hipkins will become the next Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 general elections. The market resolves based on official appointment by the Governor-General, requiring the individual to officially assume office by December 31, 2027, without counting interim or caretaker roles.
Following the general election held on November 7, 2026, initial results indicate that the race is extremely close and too close to call. Both the National and Labour parties are neck and neck, leaving the country in political limbo while it awaits special votes and coalition talks that could take weeks to resolve.
Key figures in the election include incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins, with minor parties holding the balance of power. Christopher Luxon currently remains in office as a caretaker until a new government is officially formed and sworn in.
Sources: RNZ: 'Too close to call': Wait begins for special votes after cliffhanger Election night, The Canberra Times: National claims pathway to power in tight NZ election, Al Jazeera: Two main parties neck and neck after New Zealand vote, near complete count, BBC: New Zealand election 'too close to call' - so who will be next PM?, The Sunday Guardian: New Zealand Election 2026: Conservative Bloc Takes Slim Lead As Count Stays Too Close To Call, With Special Votes Likely To Decide The Result, CNN: New Zealand in political limbo after knife-edge election, Moneycontrol.com: New Zealand Election: National, Labour neck and neck as minor parties hold key, Al Jazeera: New Zealand’s prime minister says election is ‘too close to call’, The Guardian: New Zealand faces weeks of uncertainty with election ‘too close to call’, Bénin Web TV: New Zealand: Election remains uncertain, Luxon hopes to retain power, The Australian: Luxon hails ‘pathway to government’ with NZ election ‘too close to call’, WION: Who will govern New Zealand? National and Labour neck and neck after election, Nacionale: Is Christopher Luxon still prime minister? Yes, as caretaker until a new government is sworn in, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: New Zealand may not know its government for weeks — key takeaways, The Washington Post: New Zealand’s election results are too close to call
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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7 Nov 2026
New Zealand Election Too Close to Call
The chance of Chris Hipkins becoming the next Prime Minister dropped significantly following the New Zealand general election. Major news outlets reported that the election was too close to call as the National and Labour parties remained neck and neck, leaving the government in political limbo.
Sources: The Canberra Times: National claims pathway to power in tight NZ election, Al Jazeera: Two main parties neck and neck after New Zealand vote, near complete count, BBC: New Zealand election 'too close to call' - so who will be next PM?, The Sunday Guardian: New Zealand Election 2026: Conservative Bloc Takes Slim Lead As Count Stays Too Close To Call, With Special Votes Likely To Decide The Result, CNN: New Zealand in political limbo after knife-edge election
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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5 Nov 2026
Polls Show National-Led Government Ahead of Labour
The likelihood of Chris Hipkins becoming Prime Minister decreased as polling data indicated the National-led government was ahead of the Labour-led opposition, with a minor party positioned to hold the balance of power. Additionally, coverage highlighted a tight election race and a knife-edge outcome.
Sources: Roy Morgan Research: Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: National-led Government ahead of Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (47.5% vs. 44%); but Opportunity Party (8%) set to hold the ‘balance of power’ and determine next PM, The Guardian: New Zealand heads for election cliffhanger with minor party cast as kingmaker
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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30 Oct 2026
Prediction Market Moves for Chris Hipkins
The prediction market odds for Chris Hipkins increased around the time media discussed his campaign visits, coalition challenges, and a prediction market correction regarding his chances. These events were covered in recent news reports leading up to the market movement.
Sources: NZ Herald: Labour leader Chris Hipkins speaks to media during Dunedin visit, Newsroom: Hipkins: ‘Our challenge is to be inspiring, but also realistic’, Stuff.co.nz: Polymarket prediction market corrects after possible manipulation attempt in favour of Labour’s Chris Hipkins, rova: Coalition Chaos: Can Chris Hipkins Build an Unprecedented Four-Party Coalition?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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29 Oct 2026
Polymarket corrects after attempted manipulation favoring Chris Hipkins
The chance of Chris Hipkins becoming the next Prime Minister dropped following a correction by a prediction market. An article reported that the market adjusted after a possible manipulation attempt favored the Labour leader.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections”?
On 7 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was down 25 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 7 Nov 2026, from 52% to 11%: New Zealand Election Too Close to Call. The chance of Chris Hipkins becoming the next Prime Minister dropped significantly following the New Zealand general election. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 8 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.