Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes at 16% on 2 Nov 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether David Lisnard will win the 2027 French presidential election. It resolves based on the official results and credible reporting of the two-round election, which concludes with a winner by the end of 2027.
As the 2027 election approaches, David Lisnard has emerged as a prominent right-wing contender and mayor of Cannes gaining attention on social media. However, he faces political friction, including calls from figures like Marc Fesneau to exclude him from a potential centrist primary, and opposition from Éric Ciotti who reaffirmed an alliance with the National Rally.
The broader presidential race features other key figures such as Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Édouard Philippe amid shifting poll numbers and debates over primaries and political alignments ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Sources: www.nice-premium.com: 2027 Presidential Election: Éric Ciotti Closes Door to David Lisnard and Reaffirms Alliance with the RN, Entrevue.fr: Presidential 2027: Marc Fesneau Calls for a Large Primary but Wants to Exclude David Lisnard, Європейська правда: From Cannes to the presidency: France's new right-wing contender, Mezha.net: Cannes Mayor David Lisnard Rides Social Media Surge Toward France’s 2027 Election, Європейська правда: How the mayor of Cannes rose to prominence and why he wants to become president of France
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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1 Dec 2026
Proposed Primary Deadline by Aurore Bergé
Aurore Bergé called for a right and center primary before December, which could shape coalition building and candidate selection for the centrist camp affecting David Lisnard's path.
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1 Apr 2027
First Round of the French Presidential Election
Voters will cast ballots in the first round to determine the top two runoff candidates, directly resolving whether David Lisnard advances or is eliminated.
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Any time before April 2027
Centrist and Right-Wing Primaries or Alliance Decisions
Calls for primaries or coalition decisions among right and center figures, including potential moves to include or exclude David Lisnard, could significantly alter his viability.
Source: www.nice-premium.com: 2027 Presidential Election: Éric Ciotti Closes Door to David Lisnard and Reaffirms Alliance with the RN, Entrevue.fr: Presidential 2027: Marc Fesneau Calls for a Large Primary but Wants to Exclude David Lisnard
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Any time before April 2027
Public Opinion Poll Updates
Upcoming polling data measuring David Lisnard's national visibility and social media surge against established frontrunners like Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon could shift his market odds.
Source: Demócrata: Le Pen and Mélenchon consolidate as favorites for the presidential runoff in France, according to a poll., RFI: Le Pen widens poll lead as Mélenchon closes in on run-off spot, Mezha.net: Cannes Mayor David Lisnard Rides Social Media Surge Toward France’s 2027 Election
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Next French Presidential Election”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 16%, which means they saw about a 16 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Proposed Primary Deadline by Aurore Bergé (1 Dec 2026); First Round of the French Presidential Election (1 Apr 2027); Centrist and Right-Wing Primaries or Alliance Decisions. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 19 Apr 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).