Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 100% on 5 Nov 2026, up 77 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 12 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Donald Trump would publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Trump made a qualifying public statement containing an insult directed at Paxton before the deadline, and "No" otherwise.
Following the close of the market, news reports from the November 2026 midterm elections indicated that Ken Paxton lost the Texas U.S. Senate race to Democrat James Talarico. Subsequent commentary noted that Trump's gamble on Paxton had backfired and that analysts blamed Paxton for the Republican rout in Texas.
Sources: NBC News: Democrat James Talarico turns Texas Senate seat blue, defeating Ken Paxton, Fox News: Trump's gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upset, Mediaite: Karl Rove Says Midterms ‘Surprised’ Him, Blames Ken Paxton for Texas Rout
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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5 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Trump Campaign Rallies Spark Discussion on Ken Paxton Insults
News outlets published retrospectives focusing on insults Donald Trump has previously aimed at Ken Paxton's looks during the election campaign. These reports coincided with a jump in the market predicting whether Trump would publicly insult Paxton before October 31, 2026.
Sources: Newsweek: 5 Insults Trump Has Aimed at Ken Paxton’s Looks During Election Campaign, Yahoo: 5 insults Trump has aimed at Ken Paxton's looks during election campaign
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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14 Oct 2026
Trump-backed Ken Paxton reports
News articles published ahead of the market change reported that Trump-backed Ken Paxton partied with federal fugitives. However, the articles do not indicate any public insults by Donald Trump directed at Paxton.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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12 Oct 2026
Ken Paxton Responds to Leaked Audio
The market probability decreased after Ken Paxton addressed a leaked tape of him criticizing Donald Trump. News outlets published reports covering Paxton's defense regarding the damning audio.
Sources: Yahoo: Ken Paxton addresses leaked tape of him criticizing Donald Trump, The New Republic: Ken Paxton Offers Pathetic Defense for Damning Leaked Audio of Him
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 100%, which means they saw about a 100 in 100 chance. That was up 77 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 10% to 34%: Trump Campaign Rallies Spark Discussion on Ken Paxton Insults. News outlets published retrospectives focusing on insults Donald Trump has previously aimed at Ken Paxton's looks during the election campaign. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.