Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?
2 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will return to Brazil by December 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Yes" if he physically enters the terrestrial territory of Brazil before 11:59 PM ET on that date, and "No" otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that following an election defeat, Flávio Bolsonaro and his family left Brazil despite a travel ban and arrived in the United States. The U.S. State Department has stated that they will receive U.S. visas, and former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed support for his entry.
The events are tied to the aftermath of Brazil's recent election loss, with reports detailing his departure from Brazil and subsequent travel arrangements supported by U.S. officials.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Defeated Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro arrives in US despite travel ban: Report, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Bolsonaro lands in US days after election defeat: Sources, The Copenhagen Post: Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly arrives in the U.S. despite Brazilian court travel ban, TVP World: Flavio Bolsonaro and family leave Brazil despite travel ban, The Journal: Brazil’s Flávio Bolsonaro and family will get US visas after election loss, State Department says, Reuters: Trump says he approves of Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro coming to US, The Indian Express: Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after election loss, Trump backs US entry, Modern Diplomacy: Flavio Bolsonaro Flees to US After Brazil Election Defeat as Trump Backs His Entry, The Journal: Flavio Bolsonaro on his way to Ecuador after fleeing Brazil following election defeat, NBC News: Flavio Bolsonaro and family to receive U.S. visas after fleeing Brazil following election loss, NewsCord: U.S. Issues Visas For Flávio Bolsonaro After Brazil Cancels Passports: how 27 outlets framed it, Durango Herald: Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil through Argentina, en route to Ecuador, migration authority says, Hindustan Times: Flávio Bolsonaro's arrival in the US get's Trump's seal of approval: ‘They’re fine people' | Hindustan Times, Euronews.com: US says it will grant Flavio Bolsonaro visa as he flees Brazil, The New York Times: Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the U.S. After Election Defeat
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the United States
Reports emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the United States following an election loss in Brazil. Outlets noted that he departed despite a travel ban and amid criminal investigations, decreasing the likelihood of his return to Brazil during the specified timeframe.
Sources: Latest news from Azerbaijan: Flavio Bolsonaro reportedly heads to US despite Brazil travel ban, Mother Jones: Yet Another Defeated Bolsonaro Flees to the United States, Yahoo: Flavio Bolsonaro headed to US after Brazil election defeat: US media, News 5 Cleveland WEWS: Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will be granted US visa after he defied a travel ban, Time Magazine: Flávio Bolsonaro Flees Brazil Amid Financial Crime Investigations, Bloomberg.com: US to Give Visa to Brazilian Election Loser Bolsonaro, Yahoo: Flávio Bolsonaro Defies Brazil Travel Ban After Election Loss
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 28% to 16%: Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil for the United States. Reports emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the United States following an election loss in Brazil. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.