Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 0% on 4 Nov 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Frank Donovan will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026. It resolves based on who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, according to official government information, the United Nations, or formal appointment rules.
Recent news highlights ongoing political developments in Venezuela following the return of opposition leader María Corina Machado from exile. Meanwhile, international pressure continues, with the United States recently proposing elections for 2027 and urging a phased plan for a democratic transition.
Key factors include international diplomatic efforts, the status of the current leadership, and potential political transitions leading up to the end of 2026. The market relies strictly on official governmental and UN designations to determine the final resolution.
Sources: Reuters: Now home, Venezuela opposition leader Machado walks tightrope with supporters, Trump, The New York Times: Venezuelan Opposition Leader’s Return Tests Limits of U.S. Sway, NST Online: Machado ready to meet Venezuela leader after shock return, KWXX - Hawaii: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela after nearly a year in exile, BBC: Opposition leader María Machado returns from exile to a Venezuela reshaped by Trump, Le Monde.fr: Venezuelan leader demands Bank of England return gold, U.S. News & World Report: US Proposes Venezuela Elections for 2027, Opposition Leader Machado Says, NPR: Venezuela’s popular opposition leader returns to the country, NPR: Pressure grows for Venezuela's authoritarian regime as opposition leader Machado returns, Al Jazeera: US urges Venezuela to follow phased plan for democratic transition, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will stand trial June 1, 2027
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Venezuela leader end of 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.