Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes at 32% on 28 Oct 2026, down 19 pts over the previous 7 days. 5 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Gadi Eizenkot will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel following the parliamentary elections held on October 27, 2026. The market will resolve to the individual officially sworn in as Prime Minister, excluding any interim or caretaker roles, with a final resolution deadline of December 31, 2027.
As of October 28, 2026, vote counting is ongoing and no clear winner has emerged from the election. Both Gadi Eizenkot and incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu have claimed potential paths to forming a government, with early results showing a tight race and a potential deadlock between their respective political blocs.
The formation of the next government depends on which candidate can successfully assemble a coalition majority in the Knesset. Analysts are currently evaluating various scenarios for coalition building as the final vote tallies continue to be processed.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: Netanyahu Leads Eisenkot With Over Half Israel Votes Counted, CBC: Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims to lead Israel after deadlocked vote, NewsCord: Exit Polls Show Gadi Eisenkot Bloc Ahead, Netanyahu Bloc Tied as Israel Election Deadlocks: 281 outlets compared, Al Jazeera: Netanyahu or Eisenkot? Can you form Israel’s next coalition government?, WSJ: Netanyahu Holds on as Election Results Show No Clear Winner, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Gadi Eisenkot declares victory as bloc takes lead over Netanyahu's, despite deadlock, Plataforma Media: Israel: Eisenkot says he wants to form government and opposes new elections, Al Jazeera: Five key takeaways from Israel’s parliamentary elections, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Israel’s election deadlock: 3 scenarios for what comes next, Kyiv Post: Israel After the Election: Who Will Form a Government?, The New York Times: Israel’s Election: When Will We Know Who Will Be Prime Minister?, The Washington Post: No clear winner in Israeli vote, exit polls indicate, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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As final vote counts are released
Final Vote Count and Coalition Talks
The ongoing release of official vote counts and subsequent negotiations to form a ruling coalition will determine whether Gadi Eizenkot can secure a parliamentary majority to become prime minister.
Source: Bloomberg.com: Netanyahu Overtakes Eisenkot With Half Israeli Votes Counted, WSJ: Netanyahu Holds on as Election Results Show No Clear Winner, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot
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Before December 31, 2027
Official Swearing-In of Prime Minister
Market resolves to "Yes" if Gadi Eizenkot is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the election, or to "Other" if no prime minister is sworn in by the deadline.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel
The chance of Gadi Eizenkot becoming Prime Minister declined after exit polls indicated no clear winner in Israel's election and a potential coalition deadlock. Reports noted that Benjamin Netanyahu pulled ahead as votes were counted.
Sources: The New York Times: Israel Election Live Updates: Exit Polls Suggest No Clear Winner, NewsDrum: Israel election deadlock: Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims to form government, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, The Washington Post: No clear winner in Israeli vote, exit polls indicate, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Eisenkot's Chances Fall Amid Deadlocked Election
The price dropped after exit polls and initial reports indicated a deadlocked election in Israel. Both Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu fell short of a clear majority, leading to uncertainty over who can form the next government.
Sources: The Times of Israel: Eisenkot and Netanyahu each vow to form next coalition, even as exit polls predict stalemate, The Sunday Guardian: Israeli Elections Exit Polls: Will Netanyahu Remain Prime Minister or Can Gadi Eisenkot Form the Next Government as Both Camps Struggle to Secure 61 Seats?, NewsCord: Exit Polls Show Gadi Eisenkot Bloc Leads Israel Election, Netanyahu Bloc Falls Short Of Majority, BBC: Israel elections: Arab parties could hold key as Netanyahu and Eisenkot set to fall short of victory, BBC: Netanyahu and Eisenkot face difficult paths to power as neither set to win majority
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Gadi Eizenkot Overtakes Netanyahu on Election Day
As voters went to the polls in Israel's high-stakes election, Gadi Eizenkot overtook Benjamin Netanyahu to become the favorite on prediction markets. News reports noted that voter turnout reached record highs as both candidates made urgent late-day pleas to mobilize voters.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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18 Oct 2026
Donald Trump Endorses Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel Election
Donald Trump endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection ahead of the upcoming Israeli election. Following this endorsement, the prediction market chance for Gadi Eizenkot dropped from 53% to 44%.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: Trump Endorses Netanyahu for Reelection as Israeli Leader, New York Post: Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s elections: ‘Will never let you down’, Business Standard: Trump endorses Netanyahu's re-election bid after months of strained ties, Nine.com.au: Trump endorses ‘great warrior’ Netanyahu ahead of Israel election, International Business Times UK: Trump Calls Netanyahu a 'Great Warrior' as His Israeli Election Endorsement Draws Criticism Online, SFG Media: Trump Urged Israelis to Vote for Netanyahu in the October 27 Election, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections, citing Iranian threat, South China Morning Post: Trump endorses ‘great warrior’ Netanyahu as tight Israeli election looms
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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29 Sep 2026
Security Detail Denied for Gadi Eisenkot
The chance of Gadi Eisenkot becoming the next prime minister fell after reports emerged that the Shin Bet will not provide him with a security detail, defying an advisory committee. This decision came despite an earlier report to the contrary.
Sources: Haaretz: Defying advisory committee, Shin Bet won't provide security for Gadi Eisenkot, The Times of Israel: Shin Bet won’t provide Eisenkot with security detail, despite earlier report to contrary
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 32%, which means they saw about a 32 in 100 chance. That was down 19 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 36% to 24%: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel. The chance of Gadi Eizenkot becoming Prime Minister declined after exit polls indicated no clear winner in Israel's election and a potential coalition deadlock. Reports noted that Benjamin Netanyahu pulled ahead as votes were counted. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 5).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Final Vote Count and Coalition Talks; Official Swearing-In of Prime Minister. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.