Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Yes at 34% on 28 Oct 2026, down 22 pts over the previous 7 days. 8 big jumps since 20 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Gadi Eizenkot will be the first person officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the October 27, 2026 parliamentary election. The market resolves based on the official presidential mandate, rather than preliminary consultations or party recommendations, and will close to "Other" if no individual is tasked by December 31, 2027.
Following the election, both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eizenkot have claimed a mandate amid a deadlocked vote where exit polls and initial projections show no clear winner. While some partial vote counts and blocs indicate a tight race with neither side immediately securing a decisive Knesset majority, both camps have staked rival claims to lead the next government.
Gadi Eizenkot, a former top Israeli general, has emerged as a major political contender challenging Netanyahu in the wake of the high-turnout election. Official results remain subject to further counting and subsequent consultations by the Israeli president, who will ultimately decide which candidate receives the first opportunity to build a ruling coalition.
Sources: The Diplomatic Insight: Netanyahu, Eisenkot Both Claim Mandate After Deadlocked Israeli Election, Cyprus Inform: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Both Claim Mandate as Exit Polls Show Deadlock in Israel Election, The New Indian Express: Israel election: Netanyahu bloc leads after 50% of votes counted, NewsBytes: High turnout sees PM Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot claim mandate, RTE.ie: Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims to lead Israel after deadlocked vote, The New Indian Express: Gadi Eisenkot: From Israel's top general to contender for top political office, Al Jazeera: Netanyahu, Eisenkot camps clash over Israel election projections, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, NewsCord: Netanyahu Wins Israel Election, But Eisenkot-Led Opposition Blocks Knesset Majority: how 24 outlets framed it, Haaretz: Analysis • Israel's democracy may not get another chance like this, Egypt Independent: Who is Gadi Eizenkot, the man challenging Netanyahu?, Deadline: Israel Election: Netanyahu & Eisenkot Level After Exit Poll, NewsCord: Exit Polls Show Gadi Eisenkot Bloc Ahead, Netanyahu Bloc Tied as Israel Election Deadlocks: 281 outlets compared, Udaipur Kiran: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Claim Mandate After Tight Israeli Election, Yahoo News Canada: Netanyahu or Eisenkot? Can you form Israel’s next coalition government?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Dec 2027
Market resolution deadline
If no individual is officially tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to Other.
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As vote counting continues and final results are released
Official vote count updates
Updates from the Central Election Committee regarding final vote tallies will clarify whether the Netanyahu or Eisenkot bloc secures a stronger position in the Knesset, directly affecting who receives the presidential mandate.
Source: The New Indian Express: Netanyahu bloc leads Israeli polls after 50 per cent of votes counted: Committee, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, www.israelhayom.com: תוצאות הבחירות Israeli elections Netanyahu and Eisenkot face coalition deadlock
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During the upcoming consultations
Party recommendations to the President
As parties hold consultations with the President of Israel to recommend a candidate, the public endorsements will signal which leader is favored to form a governing coalition.
Source: Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, EWN: Israel's elections: What happens next?, www.israelhayom.com: תוצאות הבחירות Israeli elections Netanyahu and Eisenkot face coalition deadlock
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Following party consultations
Official mandate decision by the President
The formal decision by the President of Israel to task Gadi Eizenkot with forming a government will result in an immediate Yes resolution.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Eisenkot's Odds Drop Following Election Deadlock Reports
The probability of Gadi Eizenkot receiving the first mandate declined as multiple reports indicated a deadlocked election result. News outlets highlighted that neither Eizenkot nor his rival secured a clear majority, complicating the path to forming a government.
Sources: Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, NewsCord: Netanyahu Wins Israel Election, But Eisenkot-Led Opposition Blocks Knesset Majority: how 24 outlets framed it, Deadline: Israel Election: Netanyahu & Eisenkot Level After Exit Poll, CBC: Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims to lead Israel after deadlocked vote, NewsCord: Exit Polls Show Gadi Eisenkot Bloc Ahead, Netanyahu Bloc Tied as Israel Election Deadlocks: 281 outlets compared, Udaipur Kiran: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Claim Mandate After Tight Israeli Election, Yahoo: Netanyahu or Eisenkot? Can you form Israel’s next coalition government?
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Exit Polls Show Stalemate in Israeli Election
The chance of Gadi Eisenkot receiving the first mandate dropped after exit polls showed a deadlocked election with neither major bloc securing a majority of seats. Both Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu claimed victory and vowed to form the next coalition amid the political stalemate.
Sources: NewsCord: Israeli Exit Polls Show Netanyahu And Eisenkot Blocs Deadlocked, Both Miss 61-Seat Majority: 34 outlets compared, NewsCord: Netanyahu Bloc And Eisenkot-Led Opposition Tie As Israeli Exit Polls Project 51 Seats Each: how 32 outlets framed it, NewsCord: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel Election as Netanyahu’s Likud Falls Short: how 19 outlets framed it, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election 2026 Latest Update: Can Netanyahu Or Eisenkot Form A Government? Exit Polls Show Both Blocs Fall Short Of 61 Seats, The Times of Israel: Eisenkot and Netanyahu each vow to form next coalition, even as exit polls predict stalemate
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Prediction Market Shifts Following Israeli Election Reports
The prediction market moved as reports discussed the potential outcomes and coalition strategies following the Israeli elections. Media coverage detailed the election process and post-poll political scenarios around the time of the price change.
Sources: The Guardian: What you need to know about the most consequential election in Israel’s history, Times Now: Israel Elections 2026: When is Voting, What Polls Predict and When Will Results be Declared?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Uncertainty surrounding Israel's upcoming election outcomes
Ahead of the upcoming election, media reports discussed various potential scenarios for how the election results could unfold. These analyses contributed to discussions regarding who might eventually secure the mandate to form a government.
Sources: The New York Times: Four Ways Israel’s Election Could End. Eventually.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Eizenkot Leads Polls Ahead of Israeli Election
Recent polls and media coverage ahead of the 2026 Israeli election show former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot emerging as a leading challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu. Major outlets reported on strong poll numbers and final campaign events for Eizenkot prior to the vote.
Sources: NewsCord: Israeli Channel 12 Poll Shows Gadi Eizenkot Camp 52 Seats, Netanyahu Camp 50, Arab Parties 14, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu but Knesset deadlock looms, AOL.com: Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Netanyahu’s leading election challenger, Time Magazine: Exclusive: The Former General Who Could End the Netanyahu Era, NewsCord: Gadi Eisenkot Holds Final Rally, Tells Supporters Netanyahu Must Go Home: how 45 outlets framed it
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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23 Oct 2026
Opposition Leads Netanyahu Bloc in New Israel Election Poll
The price for Gadi Eizenkot receiving the first mandate rose after an election poll showed the opposition leading Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc with 54 to 48 seats. Additional reporting highlighted opposition forces challenging the current leadership and the high motivation among voters to unseat Netanyahu.
Sources: The Guardian: ‘The biggest motivation is fear’: High turnout among Israel’s Palestinians could unseat Netanyahu, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election poll: Opposition leads Benjamin Netanyahu bloc 54-48, Anadolu Ajansı: Poll shows Netanyahu’s bloc losing 3 seats as opposition leads with 54 to 48 ahead of Israeli elections
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Drop in Gadi Eizenkot Prediction Market Shares
The prediction market for Gadi Eizenkot receiving the first mandate saw a downward movement between October 21 at 03:00 and 05:00 UTC. None of the published articles from that specific time window directly explain this price decrease or provide relevant updates on the 2026 Israeli election mandate. Therefore, no matching news was found to confirm the cause of the shift.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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20 Oct 2026
Polling Shows Gadi Eizenkot Leading Ahead of Election
Ahead of the upcoming Knesset election, new poll results showed Gadi Eizenkot leading with 20 projected seats compared to 18 for Netanyahu. This polling data contributed to shifting expectations regarding which candidate might be positioned to form the next government.
Sources: JFeed: New poll: Eisenkot 20, Netanyahu 18, Bennett gains
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 34%, which means they saw about a 34 in 100 chance. That was down 22 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 42% to 20%: Eisenkot's Odds Drop Following Election Deadlock Reports. The probability of Gadi Eizenkot receiving the first mandate declined as multiple reports indicated a deadlocked election result. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 8).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market resolution deadline (31 Dec 2027); Official vote count updates; Party recommendations to the President. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 6 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.