Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
14 big jumps since 28 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
26 Oct 2026
Iliana Iotova Heads to Runoff in Bulgarian Election
The market probability for Iliana Iotova winning the first round by less than 10% rose after reports confirmed that Bulgaria's presidential election was heading to a runoff following a close vote. Incumbent candidate Iliana Iotova and her opponent Andrey Gyurov advanced to the second round.
Sources: Informat.ro: Presidential elections in Bulgaria: Iliana Iotova calls for peace while Andrey Gyurov invites her to a presidential debate before the second round, Reuters: Bulgaria heads to presidential runoff after close vote, БНР Новини: Bulgarian Presidential Election results with 100% of votes counted, Sri Lanka Guardian: Bulgaria Heads for Presidential Runoff After Close Vote and Record-Low Turnout, Social News XYZ: Bulgaria’s incumbent president leads presidential election, but runoff required
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
25 Oct 2026
Exit Polls Show Narrow Lead for Iotova
Exit polls released after voting closed on October 25, 2026, indicated that Iliana Iotova secured a narrow lead in the first round of Bulgaria's presidential election. This tight contest between the top candidates drove predictions that the margin of victory would fall below 10 percent.
Sources: TVP World: Exit polls give Iotova narrow lead in Bulgaria’s presidential election, БНР Новини: Exit Poll: Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov remain in the presidential race, Informat.ro: Bulgaria's incumbent president, Iliana Iotova, won the first round of the presidential election, according to exit polls / The election will be decided in the second round, TRT World: Iliana Yotova takes lead in Bulgaria's presidential election, exit polls show, The Sofia Globe: Bulgaria’s 2026 presidential elections: Yotova on the defensive over close first-round contest with Gyurov, EU Today: Bulgaria’s presidential race heads for run-off after Yotova’s narrow lead
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
25 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
23 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
20 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
5 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
5 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
5 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
4 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
-
4 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
2 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
1 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
-
28 Sep 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
28 Sep 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 86% to 98%: Iliana Iotova Heads to Runoff in Bulgarian Election. The market probability for Iliana Iotova winning the first round by less than 10% rose after reports confirmed that Bulgaria's presidential election was heading to a runoff following a close vote. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 14).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 14 big jumps old enough to check, 5 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.