Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
2 big jumps since 25 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Iliana Iotova will win the upcoming Bulgarian presidential election, including any necessary second round. Resolution depends on credible reporting or official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission.
Following the first round of voting on October 26, 2026, official final counts show that Iliana Iotova led with 34.76 percent of the vote, advancing to a runoff against challenger Gyurov. The runoff election is scheduled for November 1, 2026, after a first round that saw a voter turnout of approximately 23 percent.
The upcoming runoff features Yotova facing her opponent in a tightly contested race. Campaign controversies have emerged regarding allegations of government resource usage and political debates surrounding various endorsements.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Bulgaria’s President Yotova leads 1st-round vote, heads to runoff, Yahoo: Bulgarian presidential vote to have run-off, official results confirm, Novinite.com: Official Final Count: Yotova Wins 34.76%, Gyurov 31.95% - Both Advance to Bulgaria's Presidential Runoff, Dunyo: Bulgaria Fails to Elect President, Runoff Scheduled, CGTN: After tight election, Bulgaria heads to presidential runoff, Xinhua: Why Bulgaria's presidential election heads for runoff, Big News Network.com: Bulgarian president to face former PM in presidential runoff, Novinite.com: Just 23% Voted in Bulgaria’s First Presidential Round, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Bulgarian president to face former prime minister in November 1 runoff election
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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1 Nov 2026
Presidential Runoff Election
The runoff election between Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov is scheduled for November 1, 2026, and the outcome will directly determine market resolution.
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31 Dec 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
If the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
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Before the runoff election
Pre-Election Debates and Campaigning
Campaign events, debates, and accusations regarding state resources could influence voter preferences ahead of the runoff.
Source: Novinite.com: Gyurov Accuses Radev of Campaigning for Yotova Through Government Channels, Balkan Insight: Bulgarian Govt Criticised for Using State Resources to Promote Presidential Candidate, BurgasMedia: Gyurov and Kandev's Burgas campaign presses Yotova for debate before runoff, Fakti.bg: Iliyana Yotova: PP and DB want to return the time of assembly ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Iliana Iotova Leads Bulgaria's Presidential Election
The chance of Iliana Iotova winning the Bulgarian presidential election increased after reports confirmed she leads the first round of voting and is heading to a runoff. News outlets reported that she secured the highest percentage of the vote and will face her opponent in the upcoming second round.
Sources: logos-pres.md: Iliana Iotova Leads Bulgaria’s Presidential Election, 1Lurer: The second round of Bulgaria’s presidential election will take place on November 1, SFG Media: Iliyana Yotova, Who Supports Dialogue With Russia, Leads Bulgaria's Presidential Election, Anadolu Ajansı: Bulgaria’s President Yotova leads 1st-round vote, heads to runoff, Novinite.com: Official Final Count: Yotova Wins 34.76%, Gyurov 31.95% - Both Advance to Bulgaria's Presidential Runoff
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election Heads to Runoff
Iliana Iotova faces a runoff election after failing to secure a decisive victory in the first round. News reports indicate a close contest and a runoff against Andrey Gurov.
Sources: SBS: Presidential vote in Bulgaria heads to runoff amid Black Sea security fears, БТА: UPDATED With Runoff Imminent, Andrey Gurov Invites Iliana Iotova to "Open and Civilized Debate", БТА: Iotova and Gurov to Face Off in Presidential Runoff on November 1
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 64% to 74%: Iliana Iotova Leads Bulgaria's Presidential Election. The chance of Iliana Iotova winning the Bulgarian presidential election increased after reports confirmed she leads the first round of voting and is heading to a runoff. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Presidential Runoff Election (1 Nov 2026); Market Resolution Deadline (31 Dec 2027); Pre-Election Debates and Campaigning. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).