Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Yes at 19% on 30 Oct 2026, up 5 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by more than 4.5 percent over a 12-month period for any month during 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if inflation exceeds this threshold in any monthly BLS report for 2026, and will otherwise resolve to "No" after the December 2026 report is released.
Recent economic data shows that U.S. inflation heated up in September, with the inflation rate rising to 3.7 percent alongside stronger-than-expected third-quarter economic growth. These figures have increased market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Sources: Reuters: US inflation heats up in September; consumer spending rises, Fox Business: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose in September as third-quarter GDP beats expectations, The Guardian: US economy grows faster than expected but inflation rises to 3.7%, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: US economy grew more than expected in 3rd quarter, government data shows
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “How high will inflation get in 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 19%, which means they saw about a 19 in 100 chance. That was up 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.