Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 13% on 5 Nov 2026, down 12 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 12 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Iran or its proxy groups will physically damage undersea internet cables by December 31, 2026. The market will resolve to "Yes" if such deliberate physical damage occurs and is attributed to Iran or its proxies based on available consensus, while cyber attacks or attempted attacks without damage will not qualify.
Recent reports indicate that Iran has drawn up plans to target Gulf undersea internet cables and block repairs if a war resumes with the United States or Israel. Regional and international security observers, as well as governments, have responded to these threats by discussing digital safeguards and alternative internet connectivity options like satellites.
Key factors in this market include threats made by Iran around late October 2026, alongside ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East. The specified deadline for any qualifying incidents to occur is 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Sources: Türkiye Today: Iran readies plans to target Gulf undersea cables if US, Israel strike again, ynetnews: Iran plans to cut Gulf internet cables and block repairs if war resumes, officials say, The Star: Iran warns of Gulf undersea cable attacks if war resumes, National Security News: Iran draws up plans to attack Gulf undersea cables if US war resumes, CircleID: Iran Escalates Threats Against Gulf Undersea Internet Cables, Nation Thailand: Thailand has four internet safeguards amid Iran’s Oct 21 cable threat, India Today: Iran threatens to cut undersea internet cables if war resumes, what it means for India
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Cable repair developments affect Iran sabotage odds
The market probability decreased following a report discussing how rapid undersea critical infrastructure cable repair could help counter Iranian leverage. This news highlighted capabilities for addressing potential disruptions, which likely influenced the market's outlook.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
No Matching News Found for Price Jump
None of the provided news articles discuss Iran or actions by its proxy groups regarding undersea internet cables. Therefore, no matching news was found to explain the price movement.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Iran Undersea Cable Market Drops Following Diplomatic Remarks
The market probability decreased after reports indicated that diplomatic talks might be possible. Specifically, a report noted that Donald Trump stated Iran wants a deal, which could reduce tensions and the risk of sabotage.
Sources: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Trump Says Iran Wants A Deal 'And It Could Happen'
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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12 Oct 2026
Iran Undersea Cable Sabotage Market Price Drops
The price of the prediction market fell after an article discussed threats to digital infrastructure. However, this article was published hours before the price drop and does not explain the movement.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 13%, which means they saw about a 13 in 100 chance. That was down 12 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 22% to 14%: Cable repair developments affect Iran sabotage odds. The market probability decreased following a report discussing how rapid undersea critical infrastructure cable repair could help counter Iranian leverage. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Iranian proxy groups are: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. Only physical damage to undersea internet cable infrastructure will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. A qualifying incident must be deliberately caused by, or result from an attack or other deliberate action by, Iran or an Iranian proxy. Damage caused as a result of an Iranian or Iranian proxy attack on a vessel will qualify. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The occurrence, cause, and attribution of qualifying cable damage will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, cause, or attribution of relevant cable damage, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, cause, and attribution of the damage based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the damage. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, cause, or attribution of the damage, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution source for this market will be credible reporting.