Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes at 7% on 29 Oct 2026, up 5 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Joint List will win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections held on October 27, 2026. The market will resolve based on the final official results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or credible reporting consensus.
Following the recent elections, early vote counts indicate a hung parliament with neither major political bloc securing a clear majority. Arab parties, including the Joint List, have made significant gains, reaching a record number of seats and potentially emerging as kingmakers.
Key figures mentioned in the election coverage include Benjamin Netanyahu and Yousef Jabareen, as rival political blocs navigate complex coalition math and political deadlock.
Sources: Outlook India: Netanyahu vs Eisenkot: Who Can Form Israel’s Next Government?, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: Can you form Israel’s next coalition government?, Northeast Times: Israel Election: Netanyahu's Bloc Slips to 53 Seats With 90% Counted as Arab Parties Reach a Record 19, Outlook India: Israel Elections: How Arab Parties Could Hold The Key To Power, The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu bloc holds lead, but coalition math remains elusive, The Economic Times: Yousef Jabareen takes centrestage as Israel's election throws up no clear winner; here’s everything to kno, India TV News: Arab parties emerge as kingmakers in Israel's hung verdict: Who are they and who leads them?, Demokratis.co.id: Netanyahu Faces Coalition Challenge as Israeli Election Deadlock Deepens, Daily Sabah: Israel on edge over final election results as uncertainty looms | Daily Sabah, Hindustan Times: Arab parties Joint List and Ra'am could be kingmakers in Israel as Netanyahu, Eisenkot fall short of majority | World News, Al Jazeera: Israel’s election rhetoric: What candidates said, and how they performed, The New York Times: With Votes Nearly Counted, Rival Israeli Blocs Must Now Wrangle for Power, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Likud maintians lead with 89.8% of votes in, The New York Times: How Arab Voters in Israel Shifted the Political Landscape, Clarion India: Netanyahu’s Grip Slips While Israel’s Political Gridlock Deepens
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
29 Oct 2026
Joint List Seat Chances Fall as Election Deadlocks
As Israel's election results indicated a hung parliament with no clear winner, vote counting showed major blocs falling short of a majority. Consequently, the probability of the Joint List winning 12 or more seats decreased.
Sources: i24NEWS: Israel continues to count 'double envelopes,' as no political party wins an outright majority | LIVE BLOG, The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu bloc holds lead, but coalition math remains elusive, The Economic Times: Yousef Jabareen takes centrestage as Israel's election throws up no clear winner; here’s everything to kno, Haaretz: Israel Election 2026 With 93% of Votes Counted, Bloc Balance Remains Unchanged
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
28 Oct 2026
Arab Parties Projected to Win Record Seats
Exit polls and initial election results indicated a surge for Arab parties in the Israeli Knesset elections, projecting them to win between 17 and 19 seats. This strong performance significantly increased the likelihood that the Joint List would achieve 12 or more seats.
Sources: Hindustan Times: Israel election: Arab parties projected to win record 17 seats but may not be 'kingmakers' | World News, NewsCord: Arab Parties Win 18 Seats as Ahmad Tibi Says Netanyahu Cannot Form Government: how 64 outlets framed it, NewsCord: Exit Polls Project Joint List And Ra’am As Israel Election Kingmakers With 17 Seats: how 12 outlets framed it, Haaretz: Despite winning 19 seats, Arabs citizens wonder if it's enough to oust Netanyahu, アラブニュース: High voter turnout boosts Arab parties as Israel election results roll in, The Times of Israel: With 90% of votes counted, Netanyahu bloc has 53 seats, Eisenkot’s 48; Arab parties surge to 19
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
28 Oct 2026
Arab Parties Projected to Win Record Seats in Israel Election
The price jumped after reports indicated that Arab parties were projected to win a record number of seats in the Israeli Knesset election. As vote counts progressed, coverage highlighted historic turnout and significant gains for these parties.
Sources: NewsCord: Arab Parties Projected To Win Record 19 Seats In Israel Knesset Election: how 25 outlets framed it, The Times of Israel: With over 76% of ballots counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats; Eisenkot-led bloc at 47, Arab parties increase to 19, All Israel News: Historic Arab voter turnout: Results for Ra'am, Joint List shatter records but could harm chances to replace gov't
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
26 Oct 2026
Joint List Market Probability Rises
The chance of the Joint List winning 12 or more seats rose after live election results began coming in. Reuters published live updates on the 2026 Israel election results at noon.
Sources: Reuters: Live 2026 Israel election results
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?”
- 10-1192%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was up 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 40% to 14%: Joint List Seat Chances Fall as Election Deadlocks. As Israel's election results indicated a hung parliament with no clear winner, vote counting showed major blocs falling short of a majority. Consequently, the probability of the Joint List winning 12 or more seats decreased. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Joint List in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Joint List in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Joint List in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).