Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 20% on 5 Nov 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Kash Patel will leave the Trump administration before the end of 2026. It will resolve to Yes if an official announcement is made or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026.
Following the midterm elections, discussions about potential departures and administration shake-ups have begun circulating across the government. While other officials, such as Justice Department Civil Rights chief Harmeet Dhillon, have recently resigned, reports regarding potential departures by other high-profile figures continue to emerge.
Sources: Bloomberg Law News: Dhillon Resigns From DOJ Civil Rights After Democrats’ Sweep (4), MeidasTouch News: Trump DOJ Civil Rights Chief Harmeet Dhillon Resigns After Democratic Midterm Wipeout, The New Republic: Top Justice Department Official Resigns as Rats Begin Jumping, The Hill: Harmeet Dhillon resigns from DOJ in first major postmidterm exit, NPR: Head of Justice Department office on Civil Rights resigns, The San Francisco Standard: Harmeet Dhillon, San Francisco’s anti-woke crusader, leaves the Trump administration, notus.org: Trump Administration Gets Its First Major Post-Midterms Departure
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 20%, which means they saw about a 20 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.