Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Yes at 1% on 28 Oct 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will permanently leave his office before January 1, 2027. Resolution requires a permanent removal from power, meaning temporary absences or caretaker roles do not count toward a positive resolution.
Recent reports have addressed rumors regarding Kim Jong Un's health and status following a surprise trip to China. While some international media outlets have speculated about his potential death or succession, official reports confirm his visit to China and ongoing diplomatic activities, such as sending a letter to the United Nations.
The market will resolve to 'None before 2027' if Kim Jong Un remains in his position through the end of 2026. No new candidates will be added to this market, and resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: 조선일보: Kim Crosses 12-Year-Closed Yalu Bridge, Signaling New Era, AOL.co.uk: Kim Jong Un makes surprise China trip after death rumours, Daily Express US: Kim Jong-un 'death' rumors as daughter, 42, 'to be first female dictator', BigGo Finance: Defense Theme Stocks Plunge After Kim Jong Un's China Visit Confirmed; Speco Down 16%, SBS 뉴스: Kang Shin-chul: "Kim Jong-un Visited China with Multiple Intentions" ... North Korea Sends Letter to UN, Daily Express US: The 11 contenders who could replace 'feared dead' Kim Jong-un - one threatened nuclear WW3
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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19 Oct 2026
Rumors of Kim Jong Un's health spark market movement
The probability of Kim Jong Un leaving office before 2027 increased following the emergence of unverified reports regarding his health. Articles published between 16:31 and 21:37 UTC on October 19, 2026, discussed rumors of a brain hemorrhage, a coma, and potential death. These claims prompted speculation about North Korean leadership succession.
Sources: Geo News: Is Kim Jong-un in coma? Brain haemorrhage rumours spark questions over North Korean leader's health, Türkiye Today: Unverified claims say Kim Jong Un is in a coma after brain hemorrhage, International Business Times UK: Is Kim Jong-Un Dead? Brain Haemorrhage Claims Spread Online Amid Questions Over North Korea's Leadership, Daily Star: Inside 'death' of Kim Jong-un at 42 as daughter 'to be first female dictator', Times Now: Where Is Kim Jong-Un? Death Rumors Run Rampant; Kim Yo Jong Takeover Claims Surface
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 19 Oct 2026, from 2% to 13%: Rumors of Kim Jong Un's health spark market movement. The probability of Kim Jong Un leaving office before 2027 increased following the emergence of unverified reports regarding his health. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.