Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, down 42 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Likud party will win between 20 and 24 seats in the October 2026 Israeli legislative election. It resolves based on the official final results from Israel's Central Election Committee or credible reporting.
Following the election, vote counting is underway as the country awaits final results, with reports indicating ongoing counts and rival blocs wrangling for power amid political deadlock.
Key figures such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lead blocs while facing complex coalition math, and authorities continue processing votes and investigating election-related claims.
Sources: Northeast Times: Israel Election Count: Netanyahu's Bloc Leads With 56 Seats but Lacks a Majority as Counting Continues, Il Sole 24 ORE: Elections in Israel: the count is complete – Netanyahu wins 53 seats, Eisenkot 48. Possible scenarios, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Police reject Likud claims of 'stolen election', The Korea Times: Israelis await final election results as difficult choices lie ahead, i24NEWS: Israel continues to count 'double envelopes,' as no political party wins an outright majority | LIVE BLOG, The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu bloc holds lead, but coalition math remains elusive, BBC: How could Israel break election deadlock? Here are four scenarios, The Jerusalem Post: Israel election results signal political deadlock, raising three possible post-election scenarios, The New York Times: With No Clear Winner, How Could Israel Get a Prime Minister?, Council on Foreign Relations: Israel: The Excellent Election That Settled Nothing, Haaretz: Israel Election 2026 With 93% of Votes Counted, Bloc Balance Remains Unchanged, Al Jazeera: Israel’s election rhetoric: What candidates said, and how they performed, The Jerusalem Post: Shin Bet probes suspected Qatari, Turkish funding to boost Arab turnout in Israeli election, The New York Times: With Votes Nearly Counted, Rival Israeli Blocs Must Now Wrangle for Power, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Likud maintians lead with 89.8% of votes in
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
As votes continue to be counted
Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results
The ongoing counting of remaining ballots, including double envelopes, could finalize the precise number of seats won by Likud and determine if it falls within the 20-24 range.
Source: i24NEWS: Israel continues to count 'double envelopes,' as no political party wins an outright majority | LIVE BLOG, Haaretz: Israel Election 2026 With 93% of Votes Counted, Bloc Balance Remains Unchanged, The New York Times: With Votes Nearly Counted, Rival Israeli Blocs Must Now Wrangle for Power
-
As investigations or official reviews proceed
Resolution of Election Fraud Claims and Interference Allegations
Official reviews or responses to Likud's claims of a stolen election and foreign interference could impact the perceived validity or final tally of the results.
Source: The Jerusalem Post: Israel Police reject Likud claims of 'stolen election', thecradle.co: Netanyahu’s Likud accuses Qatar, Turkiye of election interference aimed at ‘Islamizing Israel’
-
During official reporting
Central Election Committee Final Certification
Official reports and certification from Israel's Central Election Committee will provide the definitive seat counts used for market resolution if ambiguities arise.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
-
28 Oct 2026
Likud Seat Count Probability Drops After Exit Polls
The market probability for Likud winning 20-24 seats fell sharply as exit polls were published following the Israeli election. Major news sources reported that the outgoing coalition and Netanyahu's bloc fell short of a majority.
Sources: The Times of Israel: Exit polls show outgoing Netanyahu coalition losing majority, but uncertainty over nature of next government, The Economist: Israel’s voters deny Binyamin Netanyahu a majority
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
27 Oct 2026
Likud Seat Odds Shift as Israelis Vote
As Israelis headed to the polls for the 2026 legislative election, major news outlets reported on the ongoing voting process and the high-stakes political environment. Articles noted that citizens were casting their votes in the country's first election since 2022.
Sources: i24NEWS: Israelis head to the polls, casting their votes in the country's first election since 2022 | LIVE BLOG, Al Jazeera: Israel heads to the polls as shift to the right dominates critical election, NPR: A quick guide to Israel's high-stakes election, The Jerusalem Post: Israelis head to polls as voting begins in pivotal Knesset election
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
26 Oct 2026
Likud Seat Projections Shift Amid Election Coverage
As the 2026 Israeli legislative election approached, live coverage and reporting detailed the ongoing political battle and turnout challenges for the Likud party. Following these updates, the market probability for Likud winning 20 to 24 seats decreased.
Sources: NBC News: What to know about the Israeli elections as Netanyahu faces a battle for survival, Reuters: Live 2026 Israel election results, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Likud divided over Netanyahu's chances in turnout battle, Haaretz: Beyond October 7: The Other Issues Shaping Israel's Election
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
19 Oct 2026
Likud Seat Projections Drop as Rival Blocs Lead Polls
The likelihood of Likud winning 20 to 24 seats declined following reports that Gadi Eisenkot is challenging Benjamin Netanyahu while the Yashar Bloc leads in election polls. Additionally, polling data indicated that Arab parties reached a record high of 15 Knesset seats.
Sources: NewsCord: Gadi Eisenkot Challenges Benjamin Netanyahu as Yashar Bloc Leads in Israel Election Polls: how 9 outlets framed it, Israel National News: Poll: Arab parties reach record high of 15 Knesset seats
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Israel Election: Likud # of seats?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 42 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 50% to 2%: Likud Seat Count Probability Drops After Exit Polls. The market probability for Likud winning 20-24 seats fell sharply as exit polls were published following the Israeli election. Major news sources reported that the outgoing coalition and Netanyahu's bloc fell short of a majority. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results; Resolution of Election Fraud Claims and Interference Allegations; Central Election Committee Final Certification. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).