Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 98% on 28 Oct 2026, up 78 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 28 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Likud party will win between 25 and 29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It resolves based on the official results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting.
Following the election, vote counting is currently underway with partial results indicating no clear overall winner. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition and bloc have pulled ahead in early counts, though a definitive outcome remains uncertain.
With over 4 million votes counted as of October 28, 2026, key figures such as Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot are closely watched as the race remains deadlocked.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Israel counts votes with Netanyahu’s future on the line, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, Financial Times: Benjamin Netanyahu ahead but no clear winner in Israeli election, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Oct 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
If election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, the market will automatically resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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As votes are counted
Ongoing Vote Counting
The continuous release of partial and official election results by Israel's Central Election Committee will determine Likud's final seat count, pushing the market closer to resolution.
Source: Anadolu Ajansı: Israel counts votes with Netanyahu’s future on the line, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, WSJ: Netanyahu Holds on as Election Results Show No Clear Winner, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
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As official results are finalized
Official Results and Consensus Reporting
The release of official results by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting will confirm the final seat count for Likud.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Likud emerges as largest party in Israeli election
Following the Israeli parliamentary election, exit polls and live updates indicated that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud became the largest party as votes were being counted. Reports noted that Netanyahu's Likud was leading the polls and securing a significant position in the parliamentary race.
Sources: Palestine Chronicle: LIVE BLOG: Eisenkot to Be Tasked with Forming Government | Netanyahu’s Likud Largest Party, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 50% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, Al Jazeera: Netanyahu outlines achievements, future plans as Likud leads Israeli polls
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 98%, which means they saw about a 98 in 100 chance. That was up 78 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 16% to 91%: Likud emerges as largest party in Israeli election. Following the Israeli parliamentary election, exit polls and live updates indicated that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud became the largest party as votes were being counted. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution Deadline (31 Oct 2027); Ongoing Vote Counting; Official Results and Consensus Reporting. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).