Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 1% on 28 Oct 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 28 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Likud party will win between 30 and 34 seats in the October 2026 Israeli legislative election. It will resolve based on the official final results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee or a consensus of credible reporting.
As of October 28, 2026, election results are still being counted with over four million votes processed. Current reports indicate a deadlock between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition figures such as Gadi Eisenkot, with neither bloc securing a clear majority so far.
The election was held on October 27, 2026, and various parties like Shas, United Torah Judaism, Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan's Democrats are also tracking toward seats in the next Knesset.
Sources: AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, The Jerusalem Post: Shas, UTJ projected to win 14 seats in next Knesset, CEC says after 3.5 million votes counted, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, Financial Times: Benjamin Netanyahu ahead but no clear winner in Israeli election, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Oct 2027
Resolution Deadline
If the results of the election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will automatically resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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As vote counting continues and final results are released by the Central Election Committee
Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results
The release of official and final election results by Israel's Central Election Committee will determine the exact number of seats won by Likud, directly resolving whether the party falls within the 30-34 seat range.
Source: The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Exit Polls Show Close Race in Israeli Election
The probability of Likud winning 30 to 34 seats increased after exit polls and early vote counts showed a tight election with no clear winner. News outlets reported that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud faced a close contest and potential coalition deadlock.
Sources: KATU: Exit polls suggest no clear winner in Israel's election, but Netanyahu far from defeated, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Netanyahu and opposition face close fight in Israeli election with no clear winner, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election 2026 Results Live: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner As Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Bloc Face Coalition Deadlock, i24NEWS: Less than half of all votes have been counted in Israel's election; no clear majority so far | LIVE BLOG
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 3% to 18%: Exit Polls Show Close Race in Israeli Election. The probability of Likud winning 30 to 34 seats increased after exit polls and early vote counts showed a tight election with no clear winner. News outlets reported that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud faced a close contest and potential coalition deadlock. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Resolution Deadline (31 Oct 2027); Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).