Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 0% on 28 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Likud party will win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It will resolve based on the official results or consensus reporting of the seats won by Likud or its joint list.
As votes continue to be tallied following the October 27 election, partial results and live updates indicate a deadlock with no clear winner or majority established yet. Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed victory and called for a right-wing government as ballots are processed.
With over 4 million votes counted, Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot remain close in the ongoing tally, while parties such as The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu are projected to secure several seats in the Knesset.
Sources: Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, Haaretz: Netanyahu Claims Victory Without Majority, Declines to Call for Unity Gov't, The Jerusalem Post: Yair Golan's Democrats projected to win nine Knesset seats in 2026 Knesset, thenationalnews.com: Israel election live: Netanyahu's coalition ahead as change bloc urged to embrace Arab parties, The Jerusalem Post: Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu projected to win eight seats in next Knesset, election data predicts, New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, Haaretz: Analysis • Israel's worst election outcome: No clear winner, no chance for change, The New York Times: Rivals in Israel Election Strike Tone of Triumph, but Outcome Is Far From Clear, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock, www.israelhayom.com: תוצאות הבחירות Israeli elections Netanyahu and Eisenkot face coalition deadlock, The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu calls for right-wing government
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Oct 2026
Official Election Results
The Central Election Committee will release the final vote tallies, which will determine the exact number of seats won by Likud and resolve this market.
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31 Oct 2027
Resolution Deadline
If the election results are not definitively known by this date, the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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Ongoing vote counting
Continued Ballot Tabulation
As the remaining ballots are counted, the final seat distribution for Likud will become clearer, potentially moving the market toward or away from the 35-seat threshold.
Source: New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election
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As results are finalized
Coalition Formation Negotiations
If the final seat count remains close to the threshold, any shifts in alliances or potential mergers between parties could impact the final seat count attributed to Likud under the market rules.
Source: Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Israel’s election deadlock: 3 scenarios for what comes next
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As official data is released
Final Seat Projections
Updates from the Central Election Committee regarding the performance of smaller parties, such as the Arab parties or Yisrael Beytenu, may indirectly affect the proportional seat allocation for Likud.
Source: The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 17 seats in next Knesset, The Jerusalem Post: Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu projected to win seven seats in next Knesset, election data predicts, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Itamar Ben-Gvir, RZP projected to win 13 seats in next Knesset, The Jerusalem Post: Yair Golan's Democrats projected to win eight Knesset seats in 2026
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Official Election Results (31 Oct 2026); Resolution Deadline (31 Oct 2027); Continued Ballot Tabulation. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).