Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 big jumps since 16 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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25 Oct 2026
Likud Polls And Election Coverage Push Up 'Yes' Odds
As Israel held its important election on October 25, 2026, final election polls and media coverage highlighted a potential Knesset deadlock and challenges for Benjamin Netanyahu. Outlets like CNN and NPR discussed the high stakes and whether voters would change their leadership, driving movement on the prediction market.
Sources: NPR: Israelis have changed. Will they change their leadership?, CNN: Israel is holding its most important election in years. Here’s what’s at stake, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election 2026 Date: When Will Israelis Vote? Check Election Schedule, Key Candidates, Major Parties & Latest Updates, BBC: How do Israel's elections work and who are the main contenders?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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16 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 25 Oct 2026, from 24% to 34%: Likud Polls And Election Coverage Push Up 'Yes' Odds. As Israel held its important election on October 25, 2026, final election polls and media coverage highlighted a potential Knesset deadlock and challenges for Benjamin Netanyahu. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).