Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes at 99% on 28 Oct 2026, up 70 pts over the previous 7 days. 6 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Likud party will secure the highest number of seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It will resolve based on the official seat count provided by Israel’s Central Election Committee, with tie-breaking rules based on total votes or alphabetical order if necessary.
As of October 28, 2026, vote counting is ongoing and no clear winner has been declared. While early reports indicate Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is leading in the vote count, analysts and news outlets describe the current situation as a deadlock between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot.
The election, held on October 27, 2026, has seen various projections for smaller parties, including the RZP, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu. If definitive results are not established by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Sources: New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, Haaretz: Analysis • Israel's worst election outcome: No clear winner, no chance for change, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Arab parties rise to 17 seats in next Knesset, The Jerusalem Post: Benjamin Netanyahu calls for right-wing government, The Jerusalem Post: Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu projected to win seven seats in next Knesset, election data predicts, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026: Itamar Ben-Gvir, RZP projected to win 13 seats in next Knesset, The Jerusalem Post: Yair Golan's Democrats projected to win eight Knesset seats in 2026, Al Jazeera: Five key takeaways from Israel’s parliamentary elections, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: Israel’s election deadlock: 3 scenarios for what comes next, National Review: Netanyahu Lives Another Day, WNEP: Why hasn't a winner been declared in the Israeli elections?, The Washington Post: No clear winner in Israeli vote, exit polls indicate, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Jun 2027
Resolution Deadline
If official election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market will automatically resolve to Other.
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As ballots continue to be tallied
Ongoing Vote Tallying and Final Results
As Israel's Central Election Committee continues counting remaining ballots, final seat allocations will determine whether Likud secures the most seats or ties with rival blocs.
Source: New York Post: Netanyahu's Likud leads Israeli election count with 27% of vote as ballots continue to be tallied, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, Jordan News: Preliminary Results: Netanyahu Leads Eisenkot by 7 Seats...
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In the event of a tie
Vote Count Tie-Breaker
If Likud ties with another party or coalition for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party whose candidate list received more valid votes.
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In the event of an unresolved tie
Alphabetical Tie-Breaker
If a seat and valid vote count tie persists, the market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Likud Leads Israeli Election Count
Following the Israeli parliamentary elections, early counts and exit polls indicated that Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the largest party and took the lead in the vote count. Reports noted that the Likud-led bloc secured a leading position as results came in.
Sources: Palestine Chronicle: LIVE BLOG: Eisenkot to Be Tasked with Forming Government | Netanyahu’s Likud Largest Party, Anadolu Ajansı: Netanyahu bloc leads Israeli election count with projected 57 seats, short of majority after nearly 42% of votes counted, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 50% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, Al Jazeera: Netanyahu outlines achievements, future plans as Likud leads Israeli polls, Telangana Today: Israel election: Likud-led bloc takes lead, Netanyahu calls for ‘strong right-wing’ govt
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israel
The chance of Likud winning the most seats fell after exit polls revealed a knife-edge race with no clear winner. Major news outlets reported that exit polls showed the election was too close to call and left Benjamin Netanyahu's political future unclear.
Sources: Newsweek: Israeli Exit Polls Reveal No Clear Winner in Knife-Edge Race, DW.com: Israel election: Exit polls show no clear winner, with Netanyahu's fate unclear
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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15 Oct 2026
Likud Chances Rise Amid Overseas Voting and Polls
The chance of Likud winning the most seats increased as voting began for Israeli diplomats stationed overseas ahead of the general elections. Meanwhile, multiple news sources and polls reported on the status of Netanyahu's party and rival political blocs leading up to the vote.
Sources: Social News XYZ: Israeli diplomats cast votes in Indian missions ahead of Oct 27 general elections back home, Haaretz: Analysis • Explained: How can Israelis still vote for Netanyahu?, Haaretz: Israel opens overseas polls for diplomats as expats struggle to fly home to vote, The Times of Israel: ToI poll: Eisenkot's Yashar widens lead over Netanyahu's Likud, but both blocs short of majority, The Times of Israel: ToI poll: Eisenkot’s party opens up big lead on Netanyahu’s, but both blocs short of majority, The Times of Israel: Netanyahu bloc drops 4 seats in weekly TV poll as another unaligned party forecast to enter Knesset, Nacionale: Poll: Netanyahu's Party Expected to Lose October 27 Elections in Israel
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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14 Oct 2026
Likud Chances Fall Ahead of Election
The likelihood of Likud winning the most seats dropped amid ongoing struggles for a Knesset majority and threats surrounding the election. News coverage highlighted challenges in securing a majority alongside concerns regarding the election process under Netanyahu.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Israel election: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot blocs struggle to secure Knesset majority, Haaretz: Editorial | Fake news, violence, tampering: Israel's election threatened under Netanyahu
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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5 Oct 2026
Polls Show Eisenkot Bloc Leading Netanyahu
The price dropped following the publication of new poll results showing that the Eisenkot-led bloc holds a lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the polls indicated the bloc still falls short of a majority without the support of Arab parties.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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2 Oct 2026
Netanyahu gains in polls amid security events
The chance of Likud winning the most seats rose after reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was capitalizing on recent security events and a high-profile meeting to gain ground in election polls. Additional coverage discussed how security issues came to the forefront of the political agenda.
Sources: Al-Monitor: How Netanyahu is capitalizing on MBZ meeting, FlyDubai attack to gain in election polls, The Jerusalem Post: Gaps narrow between Knesset blocs as security issues come to forefront of agenda
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 99%, which means they saw about a 99 in 100 chance. That was up 70 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 32% to 99%: Likud Leads Israeli Election Count. Following the Israeli parliamentary elections, early counts and exit polls indicated that Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the largest party and took the lead in the vote count. Reports noted that the Likud-led bloc secured a leading position as results came in. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 6).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Resolution Deadline (30 Jun 2027); Ongoing Vote Tallying and Final Results; Vote Count Tie-Breaker. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 5 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.