Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 14% on 6 Nov 2026, up 5 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 5 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Marco Rubio will leave the Trump administration before January 1, 2027. It will resolve to "Yes" if an official announcement is made or if he ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Recent reports and rumors suggested that Marco Rubio was considering resigning to prepare for a 2028 presidential run following the midterm elections. However, Rubio and State Department officials have strongly denied these claims, stating that remaining in his position has always been his plan.
Rubio continues to carry out his official duties, with an upcoming trip to Paris to meet with G7 foreign ministers, even as exit talk swirls around various members of the Trump team following the election.
Sources: primetimer.com: "Completely baseless fake news": State Department Assistant Secretary Dylan Johnson denies report that Marco Rubio plans to resign ahead of 2028 presidential bid, NewsNation: Rubio pushes back on reports claiming he plans to resign for 2028 run, Democracy Now!: Marco Rubio Reportedly Considers Resigning as Secretary of State Ahead of Presidential Run, Yahoo: Rubio to travel to Paris to meet G7 foreign ministers next week, CiberCuba: Marco Rubio denies that he will leave the Trump Administration: staying until the end "has always been my plan.", Bloomberg.com: Exit Talk Swirls Around Trump Team After Election Rout
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
Before December 31, 2026
Official Resignation or Removal Announcement
An official announcement from the Trump administration that Marco Rubio is leaving his position would immediately resolve the market to Yes.
-
Any time before December 31, 2026
Developments Regarding 2028 Presidential Bid
Further reports or public statements concerning Rubio's potential 2028 presidential campaign could drive speculation about his departure, pushing the odds of Yes up or down.
Source: WION: Marco Rubio denies exit plans after report puts him on resignation watch over 2028 presidential bid, Türkiye Today: Rubio denies plans to quit Trump administration amid 2028 presidential speculation, CubaHeadlines: Marco Rubio Reportedly Considering 2028 Presidential Bid, State Department Denies Claims, Muslim Network TV: Rubio weighs exit from Trump team, eyes 2028 run, VOI.ID: Marco Rubio Denies Plans to Leave Office, Refuses to Discuss 2028 Presidential Election, International Business Times UK: 'I Literally Will Not Talk About 2028 Anymore': Marco Rubio Denies Trump Administration Resignation Plans
-
Any time before December 31, 2026
Fallout From Midterm Elections
Continued political fallout and exit talk surrounding the Trump team following Republican midterm losses could influence administration stability and affect the likelihood of departures.
Source: Bloomberg.com: Exit Talk Swirls Around Trump Team After Election Rout, Facebook: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed reports on his supposed plan to leave the Trump administration as he weighs his next moves after the Republicans' losses in midterm elections. Link to the full story in the comments section. | via ANC 24/7, Livemint: GOP Midterm Fallout: Is Marco Rubio Planning To Leave Team Trump? | Details
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
-
6 Nov 2026
Marco Rubio Dismisses Rumors of Leaving Trump Administration
The price dropped after Marco Rubio publicly dismissed reports and rumors suggesting he planned to leave the Trump administration. He denied exit plans and vowed to serve the full term.
Sources: CNBC TV18: Marco Rubio dismisses reports of leaving Trump administration, Nepalnews.com: Marco Rubio denies exit plans, vows to serve Trump’s full second term, The Weekly Times: Marco Rubio shoots down reports he plans Trump exit for possible 2028 run, MEAWW News: Rubio ‘laughs off’ reports he may quit Trump admin: ‘I don’t know where these things come from’, LIGA.net: Rubio denies rumors of his departure, comments on Trump, Vance and the elections, NewsNation: Rubio pushes back on reports claiming he plans to resign for 2028 run
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
5 Nov 2026
Marco Rubio Considers Leaving Trump Administration
The price jumped after media reports indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was weighing an exit following midterm losses and to potentially launch a 2028 presidential bid. However, subsequent reports noted that the State Department and Rubio himself rejected the rumors as baseless.
Sources: Investing.com: Secretary of State Marco Rubio weighs exit following midterm losses - Bloomberg, Political Wire: Rubio Weighs Departure From Trump Administration, Forbes: Rubio Considering Resigning, Report Says, South Florida Reporter: Marco Rubio Eyes Potential White House Exit to Launch 2028 Presidential Bid Amid Wider Cabinet Turnover, AlterNet: Rubio considers quitting Trump after GOP's midterms humiliation: report, The Daily Beast: Top Trump Official on ‘Resignation Watch’ After Blue Tsunami Humiliation, Demócrata: Marco Rubio studies abandoning the Trump Government after the Republican defeat in the US elections, Moneyweb: Rubio considers leaving Trump administration, The Hill: State Department: Reports of Rubio mulling exit ‘baseless hoax’, AL.com: Trump official with 2028 buzz thinking of leaving as staff blasts reports as ‘fake news’, Florida’s Voice: State Department rejects reports Rubio may leave Trump administration after midterm losses, The New York Times: Rubio Rejects Reports He Will Leave His Jobs to Run for President, Türkiye Today: Rubio expected to leave Trump administration for 2028 presidential run: Report, The Times of Israel: Rubio denies reports he’ll resign from Trump administration ahead of 2028 presidential run
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”
- Pete Hegseth31%
- Kash Patel21%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was up 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 6 Nov 2026, from 25% to 16%: Marco Rubio Dismisses Rumors of Leaving Trump Administration. The price dropped after Marco Rubio publicly dismissed reports and rumors suggesting he planned to leave the Trump administration. He denied exit plans and vowed to serve the full term. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Official Resignation or Removal Announcement; Developments Regarding 2028 Presidential Bid; Fallout From Midterm Elections. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.