Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next

Yes at 15% on 5 Nov 2026, up 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 5 Nov 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether Marco Rubio will leave the Trump administration before 2027. It will resolve to "Yes" if an announcement is made that he is leaving or if he ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, with all other outcomes resulting in a "No" resolution.

Recent reports emerged suggesting that Rubio was weighing a departure from the administration to launch a 2028 presidential bid following the Republican midterm losses. However, the State Department quickly pushed back on these rumors, dismissing them as a baseless hoax and fake news.

Marco Rubio himself has also rejected the reports regarding his resignation. The core factors influencing the speculation include potential cabinet turnover and future presidential ambitions ahead of 2027.

Sources: Political Wire: Rubio Weighs Departure From Trump Administration, Forbes: Rubio Considering Resigning, Report Says, South Florida Reporter: Marco Rubio Eyes Potential White House Exit to Launch 2028 Presidential Bid Amid Wider Cabinet Turnover, Bloomberg.com: Rubio Weighs Leaving Administration After GOP’s Midterm Loss, AlterNet: Rubio considers quitting Trump after GOP's midterms humiliation: report, The Daily Beast: Top Trump Official on ‘Resignation Watch’ After Blue Tsunami Humiliation, Demócrata: Marco Rubio studies abandoning the Trump Government after the Republican defeat in the US elections, Moneyweb: Rubio considers leaving Trump administration, The Hill: State Department: Reports of Rubio mulling exit ‘baseless hoax’, AL.com: Trump official with 2028 buzz thinking of leaving as staff blasts reports as ‘fake news’, Florida’s Voice: State Department rejects reports Rubio may leave Trump administration after midterm losses, The New York Times: Rubio Rejects Reports He Will Leave His Jobs to Run for President, Türkiye Today: Rubio expected to leave Trump administration for 2028 presidential run: Report, The Times of Israel: Rubio denies reports he’ll resign from Trump administration ahead of 2028 presidential run

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 5 Nov 2026

    Marco Rubio Considers Leaving Trump Administration

    14% → 55%Likely cause

    The price jumped after media reports indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was weighing an exit following midterm losses and to potentially launch a 2028 presidential bid. However, subsequent reports noted that the State Department and Rubio himself rejected the rumors as baseless.

    Sources: Investing.com: Secretary of State Marco Rubio weighs exit following midterm losses - Bloomberg, Political Wire: Rubio Weighs Departure From Trump Administration, Forbes: Rubio Considering Resigning, Report Says, South Florida Reporter: Marco Rubio Eyes Potential White House Exit to Launch 2028 Presidential Bid Amid Wider Cabinet Turnover, AlterNet: Rubio considers quitting Trump after GOP's midterms humiliation: report, The Daily Beast: Top Trump Official on ‘Resignation Watch’ After Blue Tsunami Humiliation, Demócrata: Marco Rubio studies abandoning the Trump Government after the Republican defeat in the US elections, Moneyweb: Rubio considers leaving Trump administration, The Hill: State Department: Reports of Rubio mulling exit ‘baseless hoax’, AL.com: Trump official with 2028 buzz thinking of leaving as staff blasts reports as ‘fake news’, Florida’s Voice: State Department rejects reports Rubio may leave Trump administration after midterm losses, The New York Times: Rubio Rejects Reports He Will Leave His Jobs to Run for President, Türkiye Today: Rubio expected to leave Trump administration for 2028 presidential run: Report, The Times of Israel: Rubio denies reports he’ll resign from Trump administration ahead of 2028 presidential run

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027”?

On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 15%, which means they saw about a 15 in 100 chance. That was up 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 5 Nov 2026, from 14% to 55%: Marco Rubio Considers Leaving Trump Administration. The price jumped after media reports indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was weighing an exit following midterm losses and to potentially launch a 2028 presidential bid. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.