Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes at 0% on 28 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Mike Pence will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. It will resolve to "Yes" if he secures the nomination, and "No" otherwise, based on consensus from official Republican Party sources.
Early polls and discussions regarding the 2028 Republican presidential primary show figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio frequently appearing as early favorites and potential candidates. Meanwhile, Mike Pence is not mentioned in recent early polling or candidate discussions as the shadow 2028 primary begins to take shape.
Sources: The Guardian: Vance front and center in Republican midterms push – is this a dry run for a White House bid?, The New York Times: A New 2028 Poll Finds Vance, Rubio and a Mishmash of Democrats in the Mix, News Mobile: Trump Names JD Vance, Marco Rubio as Potential Republican Candidates for 2028, NBC News: Shadow 2028 primary kicks into high gear in the final stretch of the midterms, 102.7 KIIS-FM: Vance, Rubio Early GOP Presidential Favorites, Yahoo: Times/Siena Poll: VP Vance, Kamala Harris Lead 2028, USA Today: New 2028 poll shows wide-open Democratic primary, clear GOP favorite
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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8 Nov 2028
Market Resolution
The market will resolve to Yes if Mike Pence wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, and No otherwise.
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Following the 2026 midterm elections
Official 2028 Campaign Launches
As the shadow primary intensifies, official campaign announcements from potential candidates like JD Vance or Marco Rubio could clarify the field and impact Pence's standing.
Source: NBC News: Shadow 2028 primary kicks into high gear in the final stretch of the midterms, 102.7 KIIS-FM: Vance, Rubio Early GOP Presidential Favorites
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Ongoing
Trump Endorsement
Future endorsements or public statements from Donald Trump regarding his preferred successor could significantly alter the trajectory of the Republican nomination race.
Source: News Mobile: Trump Names JD Vance, Marco Rubio as Potential Republican Candidates for 2028, De Último Minuto: JD Vance seeks to succeed Trump in 2028, but is still awaiting his endorsement
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Ongoing
Public Opinion Polling
Continued polling data showing the relative strength of various Republican contenders may influence market sentiment regarding Pence's viability as a nominee.
Source: The New York Times: A New 2028 Poll Finds Vance, Rubio and a Mishmash of Democrats in the Mix, Yahoo: Times/Siena Poll: VP Vance, Kamala Harris Lead 2028, USA Today: New 2028 poll shows wide-open Democratic primary, clear GOP favorite
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution (8 Nov 2028); Official 2028 Campaign Launches; Trump Endorsement. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 8 Nov 2028 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.