Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?
11 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Miloš Vučević's chances rise following Serbian election news
The likelihood of Miloš Vučević winning the next presidential election increased after news broke that current leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in a historic election. Reports indicated that Vučević had announced a party presidency meeting following these developments.
Sources: srpske.rs: Vucevic Announces SNS Presidency Meeting, New Faces, Reuters: Serbia's Vucic concedes defeat in historic election win for student protest movement
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Miloš Vučević's chances drop following election concession
The price for Miloš Vučević dropped after longtime ruler Aleksandar Vučić conceded election defeat to a student-led protest movement. International news outlets widely reported the concession following high voter turnout in Serbia's elections.
Sources: The Guardian: Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić ousted by student movement in seismic election, BBC: Serbia's veteran ruler Vučić concedes election to student-led protest movement, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Serbian president concedes defeat to student-led movement in election, CBC: Serbia's longtime strongman Vučić concedes election defeat to student-led opposition, France 24: Aleksandar Vucic: Serbia's veteran ruler felled by student-led movement, PBS: Serbia's strongman leader Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in seismic political shift, The New York Times: Serbia’s Longtime Strongman Concedes Defeat in Parliamentary Election, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Vucic Concedes Electoral Defeat, Setting Stage For New Era Of Serbian Politics, Relations With West
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Drop in Miloš Vučević Election Odds
The market chance for Miloš Vučević winning the presidential election fell following parliamentary elections in Serbia. News reports indicated that long-time leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to a student-led opposition movement.
Sources: The New York Times: What to Know as Serbia Votes for a New Parliament, Anadolu Ajansı: Serbian President Vucic resigns ahead of snap parliamentary elections, Reuters: Serbia election: Main players, voter concerns and what is at stake, BBC: Early reports suggest record high turnout in Serbia elections, The Guardian: Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić ousted by student movement in seismic election, BBC: Serbia's veteran ruler Vučić concedes election to student-led protest movement, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Serbian president concedes defeat to student-led movement in election, CBC: Serbia's longtime strongman Vučić concedes election defeat to student-led opposition, France 24: Aleksandar Vucic: Serbia's veteran ruler felled by student-led movement, PBS: Serbia's strongman leader Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in seismic political shift, The New York Times: Serbia’s Longtime Strongman Concedes Defeat in Parliamentary Election, Твоє місто: Elections around the world: students win in Serbia, Lula is re-elected in Brazil, Bulgaria will hold a second round, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Vucic Concedes Electoral Defeat, Setting Stage For New Era Of Serbian Politics, Relations With West
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Miloš Vučević's chances drop during Serbian parliamentary elections
The chance of Miloš Vučević winning the next presidential election fell as Serbia held snap parliamentary elections. During the voting, Serbian President Vucic resigned ahead of the snap elections.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Serbia begins voting in snap parliamentary elections, Anadolu Ajansı: Serbian President Vucic resigns ahead of snap parliamentary elections
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Miloš Vučević Market Rises Following News Reports
The price moved as news articles were published regarding elections and Serbian President Vucic resigning ahead of snap parliamentary elections. These reports discussed the political situation in Serbia leading up to the election events.
Sources: BBC: Student movement takes Serbia's Vučić to the wire in neck-and-neck election, Anadolu Ajansı: Serbia begins voting in snap parliamentary elections, Anadolu Ajansı: Serbian President Vucic resigns ahead of snap parliamentary elections
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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20 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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19 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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18 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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13 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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13 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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29 Sep 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 2% to 10%: Miloš Vučević's chances rise following Serbian election news. The likelihood of Miloš Vučević winning the next presidential election increased after news broke that current leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in a historic election. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 11).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 11 big jumps old enough to check, 7 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 2 May 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).