Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 27% on 6 Nov 2026, down 7 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 23 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will attend a formal senior-level round of peace talks between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if he attends such a meeting in an official capacity, and "No" otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that tensions remain high following US strikes on Qeshm Island and ongoing debates in Tehran regarding a potential deal with the US. Meanwhile, Iranian leadership has reacted strongly to the recent US midterm election results, with Ghalibaf publicly criticizing American leadership.
Key factors include the upcoming expiration of a ceasefire deadline and discussions over whether Iran's government has been granted powers by the Supreme Leader to pursue US peace talks. Ghalibaf has been vocal on the political stage, recently clashing publicly with US officials following the midterm elections.
Sources: Daily Times: Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reacts to US midterm election results, NewsCord: Pezeshkian Says Supreme Leader Grants Government Powers Over US Peace Talks: how 9 outlets framed it, Aaj English TV: Iran, US still far apart on deal; Trump says ready but in no hurry for strikes, Jakarta Globe: Iran's Supreme Leader Says Democrats' Midterm Victory Won't Change US Policy, Latin Times: U.S. strikes Qeshm Island after missile fire as Iran warns its response could have "no geographical limits", India Today: Americans said no to war: Iran's Ghalibaf warns US after Trump's midterm setback, EnergyNow.com: Fate of Iran Peace Talks Uncertain as Deadline Approaches for End of Ceasefire, EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Drop as Traders Look for US-Iran Talks Progress, POLITICO.eu: ‘Skip the TED talk’: Iran trolls Vance over midterm defeat analysis, Daily Times: Iranian Speaker reacts to US midterms, accusing American leadership of preparing for escalated conflict, Big News Network.com: "Losing gambler energy": Iran's Ghalibaf lashes out at US leadership over "Israel-First cliff", Firstpost: ‘Skip the TED talk’: Iran’s Ghalibaf mocks Vance over midterm election post, Egypt Independent: Top Iranian official mocks Vance after VP blames Iran war for midterm rout, Iran International: Iran steps up diplomacy as Trump reels from midterm defeat, Iran International: Trump's election defeat fuels debate in Tehran over US deal
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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1 Nov 2026
Iranian Negotiators Arrive in Doha for Talks
The chance of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting rose after reports that an Iranian delegation arrived in Doha for Qatar-mediated talks. Negotiators remained in Doha to continue discussions aimed at ending the war with the United States.
Sources: Business Upturn: Iranian delegation arrives in Doha as Qatar mediates US-Iran diplomatic efforts, Doha News: Iranian negotiators in Doha for Qatar-mediated talks to end war with U.S.: reports, NewsCord: Iranian negotiators in Doha to continue talks to end the US-Iran war, official says
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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30 Oct 2026
Ghalibaf Rejects US Talks Without Seven Conditions Met
The market chance for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attending a diplomatic meeting dropped after news reports stated he said there would be no progress in US talks until seven Iranian conditions are met. Ghalibaf made these remarks as Iran received a letter from US officials concerning potential peace talks.
Sources: The New Region: Ghalibaf says no progress in US talks until seven Iranian conditions met
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
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29 Oct 2026
US Outreach to Iran Boosts Diplomatic Meeting Odds
The price of the prediction market rose after reports emerged that US Vice President JD Vance reached out to Iran's security chief in an effort to restart peace talks. Subsequent news confirmed Trump's backing of this outreach, increasing expectations of potential high-level diplomatic engagement involving Iranian officials.
Sources: The Times of Israel: Vance reaches out to Iran security chief in bid to restart peace talks, WSJ reports, Chosunbiz: Vance seeks Iran talks under Trump direction despite strike threats, Iran International: Trump confirms Vance's outreach to Tehran as US weighs strikes after midterms
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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23 Oct 2026
Iran resumes talks with the United States
Iran has resumed talks with the United States while setting seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to a top official. This development involving high-level engagement aligns with the timing of the market movement.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 27%, which means they saw about a 27 in 100 chance. That was down 7 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 1 Nov 2026, from 30% to 38%: Iranian Negotiators Arrive in Doha for Talks. The chance of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting rose after reports that an Iranian delegation arrived in Doha for Qatar-mediated talks. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.