Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 36% on 6 Nov 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani will attend a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. It resolves to "Yes" if he participates in a formal, senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran, including indirect diplomacy through designated mediators where both sides participate.
Qatar has intensified its mediation efforts to bridge differences and broker an interim deal between the United States and Iran. While Tehran has reviewed concrete proposals and factions weigh talks in Doha, regional tensions remain high following military incidents and a recent Gulf tour by US officials seeking answers from skeptical allies.
Sources: Arab News: Qatar says remains ‘hopeful’ of a US-Iran deal, Saudi Gazette: Qatar sees hope for US-Iran deal as mediators exchange proposals in real time, Iran International: Tehran’s factions weigh Doha talks as hardliners prepare the public for war, ILoveQatar.net: MOFA spokesperson says ongoing talks offer hope for US-Iran agreement, Times Kuwait: Qatar Continues Mediation Efforts to Bridge US-Iran Differences, The Peninsula Qatar: Qatar intensifies mediation efforts to end US-Iran crisis, EnergyNow.com: Rubio on Gulf Tour as Allies Sceptical About Iran Deal Seek Answers, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Rejects US Hormuz Reply as Qatar Brokers Interim Deal, The Jerusalem Post: Tehran reviews 'concrete proposals' on future of nuclear program amid talks with US - report
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
3 Nov 2026
Qatari Mediators Report Progress in US-Iran Talks
The price of the prediction market rose following reports from Qatari mediators that the United States and Iran are reviewing proposals to bridge their differences and reach a deal. Articles highlighted ongoing mediation efforts in Doha, instilling hope for a potential agreement despite recent military strikes in the region.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: US, Iran reviewing proposals to bridge differences, end war, Qatar mediators announce, Saudi Gazette: Qatar sees hope for US-Iran deal as mediators exchange proposals in real time, Qatar Tribune: Qatar’s mediation efforts continue as US, Iran review Doha proposals
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
29 Oct 2026
Qatar Proposes New Peace Deal to Iran
The market probability rose as reports emerged that Qatar presented a peace deal and a new nuclear deal proposal to Iran in ongoing mediation efforts. These developments highlight Qatar's active diplomatic role involving regional discussions.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Qatar presents peace deal to Iran in attempt to end US-Israeli war, i24NEWS: Qatar Awaits Tehran's Response To New Nuclear Deal Proposal, I24NEWS Learns
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
-
26 Oct 2026
Qatar Steps Up Peace Mediation With Tehran Visit
The chance of the Qatari official attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting decreased after news that Qatar is conducting peace mediation through a visit to Tehran. The articles discuss regional diplomatic efforts by various countries, but do not report direct US-Iran peace talks involving the listed individual.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
-
19 Oct 2026
Qatar Prime Minister Attendance and US-Iran Talks
The market probability for Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting increased following news about regional peace efforts discussed at a summit in Doha. Specifically, reports highlighted Pakistan's mediation between the US and Iran during these engagements, which involves Qatari regional diplomacy.
Sources: UA.NEWS: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi says he mediated between the US and Iran — Dawn, Business Recorder: Naqvi says Pakistan ‘never gave up’ on US-Iran peace efforts, Geo News: US-Iran peace efforts require patience, trust and continuous engagement: security czar, Pakistan Today: Naqvi says Pakistan 'never gave up' on US-Iran peace efforts, The News Pakistan: At Doha summit, Naqvi stresses sustained engagement for US-Iran peace
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 36%, which means they saw about a 36 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 3 Nov 2026, from 34% to 44%: Qatari Mediators Report Progress in US-Iran Talks. The price of the prediction market rose following reports from Qatari mediators that the United States and Iran are reviewing proposals to bridge their differences and reach a deal. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.