Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes at 5% on 28 Oct 2026, down 7 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Naftali Bennett will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the parliamentary election. The market will resolve based on who is officially sworn into the position after the election, rather than an interim or caretaker leader, with a resolution deadline of December 31, 2027.
As Israel holds its legislative elections on October 27, 2026, voters are heading to the polls amid uncertainty over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future and coalition numbers. Reports indicate a tight race with potential deadlock, and it could take weeks or months before the final election winner is officially known.
Opposition leaders, including Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot, have called for strong voter turnout as President Isaac Herzog cast his vote in Jerusalem. Bennett's party has also raised allegations regarding the use of the Elector app at polling stations during the voting process.
Sources: Bozeman Daily Chronicle: Israelis are voting to choose their next prime minister. Here's what to know, SMH.com.au: Four things to know as Israel’s polls open in defining test for Netanyahu, The Jerusalem Post: Election Day: A complete guide to Israel’s political parties and what they stand for, Toronto Star: Polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu and his main rival. Here's what to know as Israel votes, NPR: A quick guide to Israel's high-stakes elections, Rediff: Israel holds polls amid uncertainty over Netanyahu's future, The Times of Israel: As polls show deadlock, betting markets strongly favor Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu, The Hindu: Israel holds polls amid uncertainty over Netanyahu’s future, coalition numbers, Cyprus Mail: Netanyahu faces fight for political survival as Israel votes, DW.com: Israelis head to polls in first election since the October 7 Hamas-led terror attack, Euronews.com: A pivotal election in Israel, and Netanyahu’s next test, Ynetnews: Netanyahu, Eisenkot or another election? Five scenarios for Israel's next government, The Jerusalem Post: Bennett’s party alleges Likud used Elector app at polling stations, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election 2026 Live: President Isaac Herzog Casts Vote in Jerusalem; Opposition Leaders Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett Call for Strong Voter Turnout, WRAL: It could be weeks or months before the winner of Israel's election is known
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Dec 2027
Resolution Deadline
If no eligible Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market will automatically resolve to "Other".
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As vote counting continues
Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results
As votes are counted following the election, final results could clarify seat distributions for Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad and rival parties, directly shifting his chances of forming a coalition.
Source: AP News: What’s ahead as votes are counted in an Israeli election with no clear winner, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, The Washington Post: The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's election, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Netanyahu, Eisenkot caught in deadlock
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During coalition negotiations
Coalition Negotiations and Recommendations to the President
Party leaders will negotiate to form a governing majority and recommend a candidate to the president, which will influence Bennett's viability as prime minister.
Source: BBC: Netanyahu and Eisenkot face difficult paths to power as neither set to win majority, Hindustan Times: Once an ally of Netanyahu, now seeking to oust him: Naftali Bennett’s return to Israeli politics | World News, Modern Diplomacy: What Happens Next in Israel’s Election as Netanyahu Struggles to Secure a Majority?, WSJ: Netanyahu Holds on as Election Results Show No Clear Winner
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Following consultations
Presidential Appointment
The Israeli president will formally task a candidate with forming a government, a step that will significantly raise or lower Bennett's prospects depending on who is chosen.
Source: The New York Times: Israel’s Election: When Will We Know the Next Prime Minister?
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Following coalition formation
Official Swearing-In
For the market to resolve to Yes, Bennett must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 5%, which means they saw about a 5 in 100 chance. That was down 7 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Resolution Deadline (31 Dec 2027); Ongoing Vote Count and Final Results; Coalition Negotiations and Recommendations to the President. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.