Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Yes at 0% on 2 Nov 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 20 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will be the first individual officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the October 27, 2026 parliamentary election. The market resolves based on who is formally given the mandate to form a government, rather than preliminary consultations or party recommendations.
Following the recent election deadlock, Naftali Bennett and his B'Yachad faction have announced their support for Gadi Eisenkot to form the next Israeli government instead of seeking the mandate for himself. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently struggling to secure the necessary 61 Knesset seats, while opposition parties rally behind Eisenkot.
The Israeli parliament consists of 120 seats, and the post-election coalition battle remains ongoing. The market will resolve according to official government announcements or credible reporting by December 31, 2027.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Israel Election 2026 live updates: Eisenkot, Netanyahu race to 61 Knesset seats, The Media Line: Bennett Backs Eisenkot for Prime Minister After Election Deadlock, Anadolu Ajansı: Former Israeli Prime Minister Bennett’s party backs Eisenkot to form next government, TRT World: Former Israeli Prime Minister Bennett's party backs Eisenkot to form next government, Free Press Journal: Naftali Bennetts B’Yachad Faction Backs Gadi Eisenkot To Form Israels Next Government Amid Post-Election, Inshorts: Bennett's faction backs Eisenkot to form Israel's next govt | Tap to know more | Inshorts, Hindustan Times: Naftali Bennett's faction backs Gadi Eisenkot for PM as Netanyahu struggles to form Israel's next government | World News, صوت الإمارات: Bennett backs Eisenkot to form an Israeli government—a new move to tighten the screws on Netanyahu, The Hindu: Naftali Bennett’s ‘B’Yachad’ faction throws support behind Gadi Eisenkot to form next Israeli government, Yeni Şafak English: Bennett backs Eisenkot to form next Israeli government, streamlinefeed.co.ke: Israeli Opposition Unites as Bennett Backs Eisenkot for Prime Minister, VOI.ID: Former Israeli PM Bennett's Party Supports Eisenkot to Form New Government, Inshorts: Ex-Israeli PM Bennett's party backs Eisenkot to form next govt amid political deadlock | Israeli parliament has 120 seats | Inshorts, The Insight International: Bennett backs Eisenkot to form Israel’s next government, Belaaz: Eisenkot Gains Support From Major Opposition Parties as Coalition Battle Takes Shape
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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23 Oct 2026
Polls Show Opposition Leading Ahead of Israeli Election
Ahead of the Israeli elections, recent polls indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is losing seats while the opposition leads. Articles discussing political rivals such as Naftali Bennett and polling data showing shifts in parliamentary seats contributed to increased attention on potential leadership changes.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Poll shows Netanyahu’s bloc losing 3 seats as opposition leads with 54 to 48 ahead of Israeli elections, The Sunday Guardian: Israel Elections 2026: Who Are Benjamin Netanyahu’s Political Rivals? A Look At Former Military Chief Gadi Eisenkot, Ex-PM Naftali Bennett And Other Opposition Leaders, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Netanyahu’s bloc falls to 48 seats as Israeli opposition leads poll
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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20 Oct 2026
Drop in Naftali Bennett's Mandate Forecast
Ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections, polls and reports discussed various candidates and political scenarios. However, the provided articles do not contain specific information explaining the sharp drop in Naftali Bennett's chance of receiving the first mandate.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 23 Oct 2026, from 3% to 22%: Polls Show Opposition Leading Ahead of Israeli Election. Ahead of the Israeli elections, recent polls indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is losing seats while the opposition leads. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.