Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
3 big jumps since 28 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Andrey Gyurov will win the upcoming Bulgarian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves based on the official consensus of credible reporting or the official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission.
Following the first round of voting, official final counts show that President Yotova led with 34.76 percent of the vote, while Andrey Gyurov finished second with 31.95 percent. Because no candidate secured a majority, both have advanced to a runoff election scheduled for November 1, 2026.
The first round saw a record low voter turnout of approximately 23 percent. Parties and political figures are now positioning themselves for the decisive second-round clash between Yotova and Gyurov.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Bulgaria’s President Yotova leads 1st-round vote, heads to runoff, Fakti.bg: Assen Vassilev: PP will not make deals for the runoff ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria, Novinite.com: Official Final Count: Yotova Wins 34.76%, Gyurov 31.95% - Both Advance to Bulgaria's Presidential Runoff, CGTN: After tight election, Bulgaria heads to presidential runoff, Fakti.bg: Yuliy Pavlov: If Gyurov wins, GERB ends ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria, Fakti.bg: Stanishev: The rulers must hear the message of the vote ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Opinions, Xinhua: Why Bulgaria's presidential election heads for runoff, Fakti.bg: Nikolay Mihaylov: The second round assembly is in the field ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria, Eurasia Review: Bulgaria’s Presidential Election Heads To Runoff After Record Low Turnout, Fakti.bg: Ukrainian Truth: Runoff in Bulgaria Remains Open ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - World, Європейська правда: What surprises did Bulgaria's election bring and what is the likelihood of the pro-Ukrainian candidate?, Balkan Insight: Bulgarian Govt Criticised for Using State Resources to Promote Presidential Candidate, Fakti.bg: Svetoslav Malinov: The real clash is in the run-off ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria, Novinite.com: Just 23% Voted in Bulgaria’s First Presidential Round, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Bulgarian president to face former prime minister in November 1 runoff election
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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1 Nov 2026
Presidential Runoff Election
The presidential runoff election scheduled for November 1 will determine the winner between Andrey Gyurov and his opponent, directly resolving the market once results are official.
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Any time before the runoff
Candidate Debates and Campaigning
Debates and campaign developments leading up to the runoff could shift voter momentum between Andrey Gyurov and his opponent.
Source: BurgasMedia: Gyurov and Kandev's Burgas campaign presses Yotova for debate before runoff
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Any time before the runoff
Party Endorsements
Decisions by other political parties and figures regarding whether to support or withhold support from Andrey Gyurov may influence his chances in the second round.
Source: Fakti.bg: Kostadinov: Vazrazhdane will not support Gyurov ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria
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By December 31, 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
If the election result is not known by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other' according to the rules.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Andrey Gyurov's Chance Drops After First Round Results
The likelihood of Andrey Gyurov winning the presidential election fell from 34% to 24% after news coverage indicated that Iliyana Yotova led the first round of voting and headed into a runoff. Articles published during this period reported that no candidate won outright in the first round, sending the election to a runoff scheduled for November 1.
Sources: SFG Media: Iliyana Yotova, Who Supports Dialogue With Russia, Leads Bulgaria's Presidential Election, Bozeman Daily Chronicle: Bulgarian incumbent president faces pro-Western reformist in runoff on Sunday, БНР Новини: An election marked by disillusionment sends a warning to Bulgaria's government, Qazinform: No winner in first round: Bulgaria sets presidential runoff for Nov. 1
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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25 Oct 2026
Andrey Gyurov Advances to Bulgarian Presidential Runoff
The price for Andrey Gyurov rose after exit polls indicated he advanced to a presidential runoff in Bulgaria. News reports showed that he will face Iliana Iotova in the next round following the first vote.
Sources: TVP World: Exit polls give Iotova narrow lead in Bulgaria’s presidential election, БНР Новини: Exit Poll: Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov remain in the presidential race, Michael West Media: Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to runoff vote, Howl.Link: Bulgaria’s Iotova narrowly leads first round, faces Gyurov in runoff
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Sep 2026
Andrey Gyurov Market Moves
The prediction market for Andrey Gyurov winning the next Bulgarian presidential election saw a shift in probability. No matching news was found in the provided articles to explain this change.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 34% to 24%: Andrey Gyurov's Chance Drops After First Round Results. The likelihood of Andrey Gyurov winning the presidential election fell from 34% to 24% after news coverage indicated that Iliyana Yotova led the first round of voting and headed into a runoff. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Presidential Runoff Election (1 Nov 2026); Candidate Debates and Campaigning; Party Endorsements. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).