Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes at 97% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether there will be zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. It resolves based on the official FOMC statements and decisions published by the Federal Reserve, counting every rate cut of 25 basis points or any equivalent emergency action throughout the year.
As of late October 2026, the Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady, keeping the target range at 3.75 to 4 percent amid elevated inflation and upcoming midterm elections.
Recent central bank decisions and discussions leave the future path of interest rates somewhat murky, with observers and markets now looking ahead to the remaining FOMC meetings and potential actions toward the end of the year.
Sources: Yahoo Finance: Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Ahead of Midterms. Here's What That Means for the Market., CryptoTicker.io: Fed holds rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, two wanted a hike, The Washington Post: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, CNBC: Dollar steady after Fed hold leaves rate path murky, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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Before December 31, 2026
Upcoming FOMC Meetings and Decisions
Future Federal Reserve rate decisions or emergency actions throughout the remainder of 2026 will directly determine whether any rate cuts occur, shifting the market toward or away from a 'Yes' resolution.
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Ahead of U.S. inflation data
Upcoming U.S. Inflation Data Releases
Upcoming U.S. inflation reports could alter market expectations for monetary policy, potentially shifting bets regarding whether the Fed will initiate rate cuts or hikes.
Source: CNBC: Gold slides 1% as Fed hike bets linger ahead of U.S. inflation data
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 97%, which means they saw about a 97 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Upcoming FOMC Meetings and Decisions; Upcoming U.S. Inflation Data Releases. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.