Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Yes at 67% on 28 Oct 2026, up 21 pts over the previous 7 days. 5 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether any of the listed leaders will permanently leave their office before January 1, 2027. It resolves based on the first individual to officially vacate their position, excluding temporary removals or caretaker roles.
Recent reports highlight various leadership transitions across different sectors, including the resignation of the Seattle police chief following a local incident and changes at organizations like HATCo, AB InBev, and the Red Deer Homeless Foundation. Additionally, political shifts are noted, such as the upcoming change in leadership for the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
The market will resolve to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual permanently leaves their office by the end of December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Modern Healthcare News: General Catalyst’s HATCo leader steps down, BW Marketing World: Vineet Sharma, Head Of Marketing At AB InBev, Resigns After 10+ Years, Fierce Healthcare: Chutes & Ladders—HATCo CEO steps down; CDC deputy director resigns, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Seattle police chief resigns in wake of deadly food festival shooting: Mayor, Swansea Bay News: Cwm Tawe MP David Chadwick to take over from Jane Dodds as Welsh Lib Dem leader
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Prediction market shifts following leadership change reports
The probability of a leader leaving office before 2027 increased following reports of various executive resignations. While these specific corporate and local leadership changes occurred within the timeframe, it is unclear if they directly influenced the market's specific list of political figures.
Sources: BW Marketing World: Vineet Sharma, Head Of Marketing At AB InBev, Resigns After 10+ Years, Fierce Healthcare: Chutes & Ladders—HATCo CEO steps down; CDC deputy director resigns
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
CDC leadership resignation drives prediction market shift
The market probability for a leadership change increased following reports that a high-ranking CDC deputy director resigned from their position. Multiple news outlets confirmed this departure between 19:08 and 20:41 UTC on October 27, 2026. This event aligns with the timeframe of the observed price movement in the prediction market.
Sources: Good Morning America: CDC's deputy director resigns after being hired in April, upi: CDC Deputy Director Jennifer Shuford to resign after brief tenure, Houston Public Media: Former Texas health official resigns from top CDC leadership role just months after joining, KOKI FOX 23: CDC deputy director resigns after just six months
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
No Significant Leadership News Found
None of the published news articles during this time period report on the departure or status of the listed national leaders covered by this prediction market. Therefore, the articles do not provide a plausible explanation for the drop in the probability that no listed leader will leave before 2027.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
Market Sentiment Shifts on Leadership Stability
The probability of a leader departing before 2027 decreased following a series of corporate and local leadership resignations reported throughout the day. Because the market specifically tracks the departure of listed political leaders, the lack of major national government resignations during the relevant window likely caused traders to adjust their expectations.
Sources: AD HOC NEWS: Trent director resigns ahead of October 29 results for Trent stock, Traders Union: Lindt & Sprüngli names interim CEO as leadership change targets growth recovery, Simply Wall Street: Leadership Change Could Reset The Case For Erasca (ERAS) Stock, Olive Press News Spain: Algeciras mayor resigns over sexual assault scandal - the second regional PP leader gone in a week, | Cord Cutters News: Netflix is Making Some Big Leadership Changes to Help Turn Around Its Content, 95.5 WSB: Longtime metro Atlanta pastor Andy Stanley announces decision to step down, TradingView: Turkey's chief capital markets regulator chief resigns amid fund crisis, deputy minister to retire, WORLD News Group: Atlanta megachurch pastor Andy Stanley to step down, InvestyWise: Karnataka Bank: COO Raja B S Resigns, Effective October 19, 2026, El Constitucional: Crisis in the PSOE of Palencia: the entire list for Congress resigns after the change of the candidacy leader, TradingView: JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD) CFO Resigns; Interim Named; 2026 Guidance Reaffirmed, 헤럴드경제: Netflix film chief resigns amid slowing growth and mass layoffs
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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29 Sep 2026
Greens Leadership Change Impacts Prediction Market
The market probability for a leader leaving office decreased following reports that Larissa Waters stepped down as the leader of the Greens. While this leadership change occurred, the market rules specify that the resolution depends on the first listed individual in the market to cease occupying their office. As the market participants likely determined this specific departure did not meet the criteria for the listed individuals, the probability of a 'Yes' resolution declined.
Sources: Q News Pty Ltd: Larissa Waters steps down as Greens leader as calls emerge for member vote, The New Daily: Greens leader suddenly quits after health ‘downturn’, Echonetdaily: Senator Larissa Waters steps down as Greens leader due to health issues, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: David Shoebridge named new Greens leader in hotly contested ballot, Nine.com.au: David Shoebridge elected as new leader of the Greens, vows to ‘replace Labor’, The Daily Telegraph: Greens leader Larissa Waters to step down from role
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will no listed leader be out before 2027”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 67%, which means they saw about a 67 in 100 chance. That was up 21 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 60% to 68%: Prediction market shifts following leadership change reports. The probability of a leader leaving office before 2027 increased following reports of various executive resignations. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 5).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.