Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes at 0% on 28 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Olivier Faure will win the upcoming 2027 French presidential election. The election uses a two-round system and is expected to be held around April 2027, with the market resolving based on official government results or a consensus of credible reporting.
As campaigning intensifies ahead of the vote, recent polls and reports indicate that figures like Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are consolidating their positions as early favorites. Meanwhile, other potential contenders such as Édouard Philippe and Raphael Glucksmann are also drawing attention amidst nationwide protests and debates over key national issues.
The election campaign is unfolding against a backdrop of public demonstrations concerning the cost of living and education funding, with political figures addressing topics ranging from foreign policy to security.
Sources: AOL.co.uk: Bardella wins 99% backing as Le Pen gears up for French presidential race, Free Malaysia Today: Far-right leader Le Pen kicks off bid for French presidency amid nationwide protests, Demócrata: Le Pen and Mélenchon consolidate as favorites for the presidential runoff in France, according to a poll., Facebook: DW News. . French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gave her first campaign speech to thousands in Orleans, in north-central France, on Sunday, amid nationwide protests over education funding and the rising cost of living. With elections in April, Le Monde.fr: 2027 French presidential election: 'Glucksmann is the domino that rattles the whole political structure', Al Jazeera: Marine Le Pen vows French ‘renaissance’ as far right eyes seat of power, POLITICO.eu: French presidential hopeful Philippe slips in new poll, The Connexion: Latest polls suggest far-right vs far-left final round for 2027 French presidential election, Le Monde.fr: 'Six months before the French election, the campaign risks already being decided against a backdrop of fear, exasperation and demands for authority'
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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19 Apr 2027
Market Closing
The market will close on April 19, 2027, ahead of the presidential election, and will resolve based on the official winner as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.
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31 Dec 2027
Resolution Deadline
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
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Upcoming months
Shifts in Polling Data
Recent polling indicates a potential runoff between far-right and far-left candidates, which could impact Olivier Faure's standing as the political landscape evolves.
Source: Demócrata: Le Pen and Mélenchon consolidate as favorites for the presidential runoff in France, according to a poll., The Connexion: Latest polls suggest far-right vs far-left final round for 2027 French presidential election
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Upcoming months
Political Alliances and Candidate Momentum
Developments regarding other candidates, such as the consolidation of support for Marine Le Pen or the shifting influence of figures like Raphaël Glucksmann, may alter the competitive field for Faure.
Source: AOL.co.uk: Bardella wins 99% backing as Le Pen gears up for French presidential race, Le Monde.fr: 2027 French presidential election: 'Glucksmann is the domino that rattles the whole political structure', POLITICO.eu: French presidential hopeful Philippe slips in new poll
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Upcoming months
Impact of Social Unrest and Public Discourse
Ongoing protests, anti-racism rallies, and government concerns regarding social media influence could affect voter sentiment and the perceived viability of various presidential candidates.
Source: Free Malaysia Today: Far-right leader Le Pen kicks off bid for French presidency amid nationwide protests, The Local France: Presidential election watch: Is street violence really a boost for Le Pen?, The Local France: IN PICTURES: France holds anti-racism rallies after deadly gun attack outside Paris, Livemint: After Brazil's Lula camp, now France's Macron accuses social media of sowing discord ahead of polls; why they're in dock
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Closing (19 Apr 2027); Resolution Deadline (31 Dec 2027); Shifts in Polling Data. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 19 Apr 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).