Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Yes at 23% on 29 Oct 2026, up 9 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This market asks whether OpenAI will announce a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2028. It resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative makes such an announcement through official channels or if credible reporting confirms it by the deadline.

Recent news highlights contrasting pressures on the company, including credit default risks for AI firms reaching record highs and heavy financing demands, alongside warnings from investors like Steve Eisman that an OpenAI bankruptcy could trigger a recession. At the same time, OpenAI continues commercial operations, offering steep discounts to attract customers, expanding partnerships with companies like Oracle, and generating substantial revenue for partners such as Microsoft.

Sources: Crypto Briefing: Credit default risk for AI companies surges to record highs, Crypto Briefing: OpenAI offers discounts up to 40% to attract Anthropic customers, may impact financial margins, Crypto Briefing: Oracle expands partnership with OpenAI to enhance AI capabilities, Yahoo Finance: Amazon has a Muse problem. Is a deal with OpenAI a solution?, Financial Times: ETFs use ‘perps’ to offer bets on private companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI, The Motley Fool: "Big Short" Investor Steve Eisman Warns: OpenAI Bankruptcy Could Cause a Recession, TechCrunch: Microsoft recorded $10 billion in revenue from OpenAI

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 29 Oct 2026

    OpenAI Bankruptcy Market Jumps

    16% → 64%No news found

    The price for the market on OpenAI announcing bankruptcy experienced a significant move between 17:00 and 19:00 UTC on October 29, 2026. However, none of the provided articles contain news regarding a bankruptcy announcement or financial distress that could explain this sudden increase.

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 29 Oct 2026

    Microsoft Reports Strong Revenue From OpenAI

    38% → 12%Likely cause

    The market probability for OpenAI bankruptcy dropped significantly after recent financial reports. Specifically, TechCrunch and GeekWire published details showing that Microsoft recorded $10 billion in quarterly revenue from OpenAI.

    Sources: TechCrunch: Microsoft recorded $10 billion in revenue from OpenAI, GeekWire: Bigger than Bing or Xbox: Microsoft’s OpenAI haul reaches $10B in quarterly revenue

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028”?

On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 23%, which means they saw about a 23 in 100 chance. That was up 9 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 29 Oct 2026, from 16% to 64%: OpenAI Bankruptcy Market Jumps. The price for the market on OpenAI announcing bankruptcy experienced a significant move between 17:00 and 19:00 UTC on October 29, 2026. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2029 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. "OpenAI" refers to OpenAI Group PBC, the company that holds the OpenAI business and is controlled by the OpenAI Foundation, its operating subsidiary OpenAI OpCo, LLC, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, OpenAI Group PBC and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of OpenAI's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test. A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by the listed date. An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision. The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors. If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity. A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.